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| Roethlisberger in tears, via PennLive.com |
Count the number of occasions in your life you’ve witnessed a real, grown man cry publicly. Chances are, you can count on your fingers and fully recall each moment. It’s a rare event, and usually comes in one of the following forms: tears of sadness at a family funeral, tears of joy at a pivotal moment in life, or tears of pain from a really, really hard shot in the nuts.
Now, it's even rarer that one witnesses a 6’5”, 240-pound man with a heavy beard and extensive PR training cry, unscripted, on national television. Sunday, America ticked off that box as they watched Pittsburgh Steelers’ quarterback and cornerstone Ben Roethlisberger get red-eyed on the home bench at Heinz Field. He sat stoically with his longtime center, Maurkice Pouncey, and stared at the logo in the middle of the field, unmoving. Contemplating his third career loss to the Cleveland Browns. Mulling over each of the 4 interceptions he threw. Agonizing over the ugliest of those picks. Mentally recalling each of the nights 68(!) passes. And knowing, in his heart of hearts, that he had finished what should be his final season in black and yellow, even if his contract says otherwise.
How did we get here?
In April of 2019, a 37-year-old Big Ben signed his third contract extension for the team that drafted him out of Miami (not that Miami) in 2004. The deal gave him $68 million over two years, right in line with the salaries of other veteran quarterbacks, and more than the New England Patriots were paying Thomas Edward Patrick Brady Jr. (Exalted is He). A year later, Roethlisberger and General Manager Kevin Colbert kicked the can down the road and restructured the quarterback's contract to open up an extra $6 million in 2020 cap room. The Steelers used that extra money to lock up edge rusher Bud Dupree on a one-year deal and looked the part of Super Bowl contender entering the season.
You know how the story went after that. 11 wins in their first 11 games. Coronavirus messing with their schedule multiple times. The Monday Night Stinker against the Washington [REDACTED] on five days rest. A dismal finish that saw the team end the regular season 1-4. The first quarter against the formerly hapless Cleveland Browns that saw them down 28-0 in a blink. The failed comeback and 48-37 final score. At home. Against the BROWNS. WHO HAD PRACTICED TWICE ALL WEEK AND WERE MISSING THEIR HEAD COACH TO COVID-19. WHO WENT 0-16 THREE YEARS AGO AND HAD NOT WON A PLAYOFF GAME SINCE SEVEN YEARS BEFORE I WAS BORN.
Not a good look.
Now, a storm is abrewin’ in Allegheny County. Colbert has unintentionally acquired prime real estate in the highly gentrified neighborhood of Salary Cap Hell. According to Spotrac, Pittsburgh is currently on the hook for a cap hit of roughly $194 million. The current cap is a shade under $200 million. In a normal year (remember normal years? Like 2014?), the cap would rise 5-7%. This would have put the 2021 number at $210 million or so. You may have noticed, however a global pandemic happened this year, depriving the NFL of rather a lot of short-term cash.
Therefore, the projected salary cap is projected to fall this year. Most experts predict the cap will sit around $175 million. This is objectively bad for the Steelers. While there are ten teams with worse situations (Spotrac has the Saints $100 million over next year), those teams either have their cores locked up long term or are in such deep crap that they know they won’t contend until the next presidential election and are in firesale mode (Hello, Houston Texans!).
Worse still, Colbert’s excesses are condensed into 34 players, less than two-thirds of a game-day roster. Filling out a 65-man team (don’t forget the practice squad!) with a projected -$13 million in cap space is tricky at best and a Day After Tomorrow-level disaster at worst.
Back to Roethlisberger. For years, he was good for roughly 3,500 passing yards, 28 touchdowns, and a completion percentage above 65%. These were consistently top-10 marks, even as playmaking talent came and went around him.
This season, Ben hit all of those marks: 3,803 yards, 33 scores, and a completion rate of 65.6%. But as good as those counting stats were, the gains were built on empty, inefficient calories. The veteran signal caller began to go the way of Drew Brees: lots of short passes to a bevy of playmakers, propped up by an elite defense. Roethlisberger led the league in average time to throw (TTT), releasing the ball 2.31 seconds. His intended air yards (IAY), a measure of how far downfield a passer’s average throw travels, ranked 32nd of 42 QBs (7.1), and he picked up the fewest rushing first downs of his career (3). Essentially, he was throwing the ball to his first read or getting rid of it. Worst of all, he was completing nearly 2% fewer passes than expected.
Short-throwing teams to death can work for a period, but you have to be able to threaten teams with other options for those short areas to stay open. Ben and the Steelers couldn’t manage that. Play-action and run-pass options (RPO’s) open up all areas of the field for high percentage attempts. Big Ben notably hates play-action passes because they require him to to turn his back to the defense, and has seemed quietly resistant to running RPOs. With Number Seven under center, the Steelers play action and RPO rates were stunningly low at 7.9% and 4.1%, respectively. Round this out with a run game that ranked 27th in touchdowns, 28th in attempts, and dead last in yards and yards per attempt, and the Steelers offense was a one-dimensional horror show.
With Brees, the Saints at least had other options under center. The team has gone 8-1 when the Purdue graduate missed time to various injuries the last two years. Teddy Bridgewater parlayed a 5-0 backup record into a starting job for Matt Rhule in Carolina and Taysom Hill kicked his gadget-player reputation for...a slightly more respected gadget-player reputation. That pair survived by relying on a surefire top-5 running back (Alvin Kamara) and a volatile top-5 receiver (Michael Thomas), complemented by a stable of young speedsters and crafty vets.
The Steelers had no such luxuries in terms of backups or weapons. The Steelers’ recent backup quarterbacks include a racist, a duck, and a well-meaning NASA intern. Their receivers are young, TikTok addicts, and serial victims of karma.
All of this points to one simple decision. The Steelers may have enough talent to compete, but they can also tear everything down and start over. Either way, the best way to do it is without Ben Roethlisberger. And he knows this. And this is why he shed tears on the cold metal bench, arm around the man on the football field he is literally closest to.
I hope Roethlisberger retires after the Super Bowl. It’s the smart thing to do for him and for his team. He played most of this year like he was afraid of getting hurt again, not running (he only scrambled for 3 first downs, and designed runs outside of quarterback sneaks were non-existent), and avoiding sacks by throwing short repeatedly. His future effectiveness as an NFL QB1 is questionable.
If he retires, the Steelers cap situation stabilizes, and they can resign one of their many potential departures: wideout Juju Smith-Schuster, starting tackles Alejandro Villanueva and Matt Feiler, slot corner Mike Hilton, star edge rusher Bud Dupree, top back James Conner, midseason acquisition linebacker Avery Williamson, punter Jordan Berry, and a smattering of other rotational pieces are free agents in March.
If Ben doesn’t retire, Colbert has to seriously consider cutting a franchise icon. In terms of football, it’s the right move. Ben has been replacement level for two or three years now. He’s getting no younger, and the roster around him is getting no more talented. But emotionally, cutting a two-time Super Bowl Champ, six-time pro bowler, and possibly the most popular Steeler ever? That will be a Bad Time, and sections of the fanbase will be vocally against it. It’s bad PR, and I don’t think anyone, except particularly unempathetic residents of Maryland and Ohio, wants to see this scenario. But if push comes to shove, the Steelers front office knows what needs to be done.
So.
How do you replace the greatest offensive player in franchise history?
How do you replace the greatest offensive player in franchise history on a shoestring budget?
First of all, you absolutely do not. Not right away. Probably not for a while. You can’t replace the leadership, the charisma, the old improvisational spirit, and the popularity. You can't replace Ben. But you can sure as hell try to replace Ben's 2020 numbers.
The splashiest replacement option would be trading for disgruntled Texan Deshaun Watson. Watson is, on talent alone, a top-tier passer. He could do capital-d Damage with Chase Claypool, Diontae Johnson, and a real coach. However, his massive contract would rocket Pittsburgh into the Salary Cap Lithosphere even IF they could muster a large enough trade package to acquire him.
There should be a fair few free-agent quarterbacks available in Pittsburgh’s price range, but they will likely be short term fixes: Jacoby Brissett, Tyrod Taylor, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Andy Dalton, Cam Newton, and AJ McCarron. These are all recognizable names, but none of them have been consistent or productive recently.
Replacement from within is not really an option, either. The aforementioned Mason Rudolph (racist) and Josh Dobbs (rocket scientist) are serviceable in spots, but will crumble as soon as teams figure out their weaknesses on film. They haven’t shown the ability to be NFL quarterbacks, and boy have they been given opportunities. Pittsburgh added to their cast of QB options Thursday by signing for Football Teamer Dwayne Haskins, of draft-bust and strip club fame.
Yikes.
In the draft, there’s potential for a replacement, even with the Steelers’ relatively low pick (#24). Newly minted national champion and certified unit Mac Jones would potentially be available in the late first round. Jones put up excellent numbers in Steve Sarkisian’s QB-friendly system, but there are concerns about how much he contributed to Alabama’s dominance and how much of it was the insane amount of talent around him. Former Florida Gator Kyle Trask may also be available, but a lot of the quarterback variance in this draft depends on how quarterback-needy Bill Belichick plays having a pick in the top half of the draft. If the Steelers are completely desperate to draft a quarterback, Jamie Newman should be available after the first round. Newman showed promise through the air and on the ground at Wake Forest, but transferred to Georgia for the 2020 season instead of entering the draft. He ultimately opted out of the season to prepare for the draft, which has led to him sliding out of the first round in most mocks.
However, I like none of these ideas more than a potential swap with Jacksonville for the mustachioed magician himself, Gardner Minshew II. The Uncle Rico stand-in has three beautiful appeals to the Steelers. The first is that he will more than likely be available for trade at some point this spring. The Jaguars have the first overall pick in the 2021 Draft, and they would be idiots to use it on anyone but Trevor “Golden Arm” Lawrence. This makes Minshew expendable, and the Steelers could package a few late round picks to gamble on him. His second appealing trait is that he’s cheap; the 2019 sixth-rounder is due a measly $1.9 million through 2022, making him possibly the cheapest starting quarterback in football. The third appeal is that Minshew is a starting-caliber passer with room for further development.
In two years in Jacksonville, Minshew won seven of his twenty starts despite having no real help from playmakers, linemen, or coordinators. Even after going 1-7 as a starter in 2020 and getting benched for Mike Glennon, Gardner’s underlying numbers were solid. He finished eighth in the NFL in CPOE, well ahead of Roethlisberger and even players like Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady. His average pass traveled more than a full yard down the field than any Ben’s, too, despite being less aggressive with his throwing windows.
Minshew seems more than capable of replicating, or even improving upon Ben’s production, for roughly 2% of the cost. Many others can fill the on-field hole too. But the Steelers will almost certainly be victimized by the loss of many key players and regression to the mean. And no one will be able to fill the hole in the hearts of true yinzers for awhile. Coping with his eventual loss will be hard. I can offer only so much chicken soup for their weary souls, but offer I shall. My parting gift is one of the only valid pieces of poetry ever: “‘Tis a Fearful Thing,” by Yehuda Halevi. Enjoy, and wave your Terrible Towels ever higher.
‘Tis a fearful thing
to love what death can touch.
A fearful thing to love,
to hope, to dream, to be –
to be,
And oh, to lose.
A thing for fools, this,
And a holy thing,
a holy thing
to love.
For your life has lived in me,
your laugh once lifted me,
your word was gift to me.
To remember this brings painful joy.
‘Tis a human thing, love, a holy thing,
to love what death has touched.
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