What, you thought differential equations and intermediate microeconomics were gonna prevent me from running a mock draft? Y’all should know better by now.
Anyway.
Welcome to the Second Annual LothropSports Overthought NFL Mock Draft. I’ve done my best to grind tape and research as much as possible, but free time has been hard to come by. Nonetheless, I poured a lot of time and energy into this.
Here’s how my annual Overthought Mock Draft works. I’ll project my picks for every team in their current draft spot, and only project a major trade I’m fairly sure will happen (spoiler alert: we will have one this year). I will probably make fun of your team’s front office in some capacity (sorry, New Yorkers who root for a team from New Jersey). No, you can’t get mad about it. For each pick, I’ll present the team’s needs and the player I project them to pick.
My goal is to beat last year’s total of 6 correctly projected picks. Normally, online mocks project 6-10 picks correctly. Guys that can guess more than 10 picks consistently don’t write online for long; they end up working for the teams whose picks they project.
And now, without further ado…
Pick: 1
Team: Jacksonville Jaguars
Needs: They’re holding out for a hero.
Selection: Quarterback Trevor Lawrence, Clemson. Lawrence is just about the best quarterback prospect this side of Andrew Luck and, dare I say, Peyton Manning. He’s a messianic figure to Jags fans. He looks and plays like Golden Arm from Blue Mountain State (here’s to hoping he doesn’t get run over by a pickup truck driven by Isaiah Simmons). For the second straight year, the top overall pick is going to be a generational passer from the deep south. Such is life.
Pick: 2
Team: New York Jets
Needs: Who was the last capital-g Good passer the Jets had? Seriously, take a second to think about it. The short answer; never. Three guys topped eight Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A) for Gang Green. All of them did it exactly once and immediately regressed back to below the mean. Only four have won double-digit games for them, and none have done it twice since Joe Namath. As a Patriots fan, this brings me great joy. But this team is desperate for QB production and even their front office is smart enough to get that.
Selection: Quarterback Zach Wilson, BYU. Everyone in the league knows the Jets are picking Wilson. Your grandmother knows they’re picking Wilson. MY grandmother knows the Jets are picking Wilson. He’s got a bazooka attached to his right shoulder, can drop absolute dimes like this one from his pro day, and he looks like a Disney prince. He’ll thrive in the Big Apple...unless he doesn’t.
Pick: 3
Team: San Francisco (via Miami)
Needs: This is the most important pick of the draft. The Niners traded up from six to three, which they would really only do if they loved a QB prospect. San Francisco takes a passer here, it’s just a matter of which one.
Selection: Quarterback Justin Fields, Ohio State. San Francisco is supposedly enamored with Mac Jones. To GM John Lynch, I offer some advice — no. Justin Fields is a better prospect. Any questions about his work ethic are dumb as hell. The Georgia transfer is a great passer with 67 touchdowns to nine picks and 5,701 yards in 2+ seasons. He reads the field well and hits his receivers with well placed, tight spirals. He runs well and has drawn comparisons to Aaron Rodgers with his improvisation. He has almost as much upside as Lawrence. Please don’t mess this up, Shanahans.
Pick: 4
Team: New England Patriots (via projected trade with Atlanta for the 15th and 46th pick)
Needs: You are old, Father William (as in William Stephen Belichick), and your team cannot win without a real quarterback. Maybe post-‘rona, post-foot surgery, post-usable NFL quarterback Cam Newton is that quarterback. But maybe one of these guys is too. I’m skeptical of Bill ever trading up this high in the draft, but he more than anyone should understand the value of having your quarterback be a rock.
Selection: Quarterback Trey Lance, North Dakota State. I get the Thomas Edward Patrick Brady Jr (exalted is he) -Mac Jones comparisons. They both came out of college as doughy white guys from elite programs without incredible athletic ability or arm talent, just a knack for winning and a chip on their shoulders. But I think the New England brain trust understands that the game is moving away from doughy white guys from elite college programs without incredible athletic ability or arm talent. You know who isn’t a doughy white guy from an elite program and who possesses incredible athletic ability and arm talent? Trey Lance. He can sling it. He can run it. He’s got the least-questioned work ethic of any of the draft’s upper tier passers. And frankly, it’s about time Bill had a real quarterback again.
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| Two doughy white guys from elite programs without incredible athletic ability or arm talent, just a knack for winning and a chip on their shoulders |
Pick: 5
Team: Cincinnati Bengals
Needs: Thus ends the quarterback frenzy. The Bengals kicked off last year’s draft by nabbing franchise cornerstone Joe Burrow. This year, they need to help the Ohio native out, either with a receiver or a pass protector.
Selection: Offensive Tackle Penei Sewell, Oregon. In the end, the Bengals’ line is more of a mess than their receiving corps. Sewell is a mountain of a man at left tackle. He’s a powerful blocker in both the run and the pass game, and his footwork is very good for as young as he is. Hopefully, he can fit in the Bengals’ line and keep a newly-rehabbed Burrow upright.
Pick: 6
Team: Miami Dolphins (via San Francisco)
Needs: Like the Bengals, the Dolphins took their franchise quarterback in last year’s draft. Now they need to give him as many targets as possible or someone to keep him upright as long as possible.
Selection: Tight End Kyle Pitts, Florida. Kyle Pitts is pretty good at football. He’s good at catching footballs. He’s good at running faster than people trying to stop him from catching footballs. He’s a nice big target that Tua Tagavoiloa can use as a possession tight end, deep threat, or red-zone killer. Don’t overcomplicate this one, Miami.
Pick: 7
Team: Detroit Lions
Needs: Help Jared Goff succeed in any way possible.
Selection: Wide Receiver Ja’Marr Chase, LSU. Chase sat out the 2020 season to prepare for this year’s draft, but that’s not a big knock against him because his 2019 film is so good. He showed promise as a burner, ran routes incredibly well, and built a great rap with Joe Burrow. Most importantly, he’s great at getting off the line of scrimmage, possibly the most important skill for an NFL receiver. If the Lions can get a little play-action magic back with new passer Jared Goff and get him on the same page as Chase, the Lions may not suck (they will).
Pick: 8
Team: Carolina Panthers
Needs: If one of the top four quarterbacks falls to them, they should trade this pick. If not, maybe grab some help for whoever the hell is gonna throw passes for them.
Selection: Wide Receiver DeVonta Smith, Alabama. I personally like the reigning Heisman Trophy winner a lot. He put up face-melting stats in Tuscaloosa (nearly 4,000 scrimmage yards and 47 touchdowns in four seasons), and earned the trust of every elite passer who cycled through ‘Bama in his four years. Smith is quick, fast, and shifty. He can get off the line well. He doesn’t drop footballs. But I also think DeVonta will fall because NFL executives are The Worst. They’ll fret and frown about Smith’s less-than-ideal size (a slender 6-1, 175lbs), his decision not to declare for the draft after his Junior year, and how his numbers were inflated by his role in one of the greatest college offenses of all time. Hey NFL Execs, shut up. Draft the guy who’s good at football, help him get into peak shape, and watch him ball out.
Pick: 9
Team: Denver Broncos
Needs: If one of those aforementioned four quarterbacks is still on the board, Elway should pounce. Mac Jones might be on the table, but it would be too on the nose for Denver to overdraft an immobile white guy. They could also use some help in the secondary, but otherwise, this is a fairly well-rounded roster for a team picking this high.
Selection: Cornerback Patrick Surtain II, Alabama. This is the only Alabama player the Broncos should be considering in this spot, and for a good reason; he’s a baller. Surtain anchored the ‘Bama secondary that led them to a pretty easy national championship. His footwork and technique are elite for a player so young. He locked down the SEC’s top receivers for the past two years, and he’d fit well as an outside corner at Mile High.
Pick: 10
Team: Dallas Cowboys
Needs: Just because Dak Prescott can dig you out of ridiculous holes every week doesn’t mean you should force him to. I think Jerry Jones should draft a defender. Then again, I just used the words “think” and “Jerry Jones” in the same sentence, so what do I know?
Selection: Cornerback Jaycee Horn, South Carolina. A lot of scouts kind of hate Horn. I kind of don’t. He’s a big, physical corner who fights hard on every play. Boy, do the Cowgirls need that. He’s fast as hell, and because he plays in the NFC East, the receivers aren’t that much better than the ones who matched up with in the SEC every week. He’ll have a nice acclimation period.
Pick: 11
Team: New York Football Giants
Needs: A year later and I still think they should run GM Dave Gettleman out of town, but he’s growing on me slightly. Like E.Coli on room- temperature Canadian Beef. Alas, while he’s still in town, he’s always going to want big guys that hang out around the line of scrimmage. They’ll probably nab a linebacker or a lineman.
Selection: Linebacker Micah Parsons, Penn State. Parsons is the most talented defender in this draft in my opinion, but none of the teams higher up in the draft are really hurting for an off-ball ‘backer. If he falls this far, hopefully Gettleman can control his raging hard-on for 300 pounders and grab a great prospect that fills a hole on his roster.
Pick: 12
Team: Philadelphia Eagles (via Miami via San Francisco)
Needs: I think there’s a small chance Howie Roseman makes a pass at Mac Jones, but having a pair of former ‘Bama quarterbacks on the roster feels like a bit much. Instead, he should pick a receiver, a position where the Eagles have been continually snakebitten since the early Desean Jackson-Jeremy Maclin days.
Selection: Wide Receiver Jaylen Waddle, Alabama. Waddle is a downfield burner with a history of injuries and drops. If that doesn’t fit Philly’s MO, I have no idea what does. Waddle was the top receiver on the Crimson Tide offense before getting hurt midseason, allowing for the ascension of DeVonta Smith. In Delaware County, Waddle would fit well as an outside target for Jalen Hurts to uncork bombs to. The Eagles have missed a presence like that for a long time.
Pick: 13
Team: Los Angeles Chargers
Needs: Justin Herbert looks like the real deal after his rookie year. LA should devote some resources to making sure he gets hit a LOT less.
Selection: Offensive Tackle Rashawn Slater, Northwestern. Slater isn’t especially large for an offensive tackle — 6-3, 305lbs — but he more than makes up for it with great explosiveness and smooth footwork. He can expertly mirror any pass rusher and use surprising power to move bodies out of the way. This is the best fit for him, but don’t be surprised if he goes higher than this.
Pick: 14
Team: Minnesota Vikings
Needs: Minnesota’s pass rush straight up sucked in 2020, generating the fourth-worst pressure rate and the fifth-fewest sacks. They need a pass rusher in some type of way.
Selection: Edge Rusher Gregory Rousseau, Miami. Outside of Mac Jones (I promise I’ll say something nice about him soon), Rousseau is the most inconsistently rated player by media draft experts. The Ringer’s Danny Kelly has him ranked as the 35th overall prospect and sixth overall pass rusher; ESPN’s Mel Kiper has him ranked third among pass rushers and just outside his top 25. Others have him as a top-10 prospect. I really like him because his height (6-7) offers darn near limitless potential. He has shades of ex-Viking legend Jared Allen, and I think Minnesota could use a guy like him.
Pick: 15
Team: Atlanta Falcons (via projected trade with New England)
Needs: Matt Ryan’s getting up there, and he’s going to be too expensive to bring back when his contract expires. I think it’s time Atlanta drafts a quarterback that’s not a former UVA legend.
Selection: Quarterback Mac Jones, Alabama. *long exhale* Okay. Jones is not a bad prospect, per se. But there are so many gosh darn red flags — lack of arm strength, dad-bod, the sheer amount of playmaking talent around him in Tuscaloosa, the fact that his middle name is McCorkle (hence the Mac). However, I see why certain teams are enamored with him. He was successful on play-action throws, a staple of many NFL offenses. He consistently has topped all obstacles, usually in the form of five-star recruits, thrown his way. His numbers last season were absolutely bonkers. He’s made a fair number of NFL throws. But he’s a year or two away from being a real starter. Draft him and have Ryan mentor him before unceremoniously defenestrating the former MVP.
Pick: 16
Team: Arizona Cardinals
Needs: It’s 2021, so any team should know that having Malcolm Butler as plan A at cornerback is a Bad Idea.
Selection: Cornerback Caleb Farley, Virginia (F*ck) Tech. Farley sat out the 2020 college season to prepare for the draft, which means his second-to-last football game was a loss in Charlottesville, so he gets a pass. He’s really good at the whole defending passes thing, though. The rangy 22- year-old grabbed 6 interceptions and defended 19 passes in 2 seasons for the Hokies, and used his blazing speed and length to keep receivers in front of him well. However, there are concerns that he could struggle against small, quick receivers. That could be a problem in a division with Cooper Kupp, Tyler Lockett, and UMass legend Andy Isabella (okay maybe that last one’s a stretch).
Pick: 17
Team: Las Vegas Raiders
Needs: The Raiders are in a similar boat to the Vikings, but with a slightly more nuanced issue. Their interior guys created a lot of pressure, good for the middle of the league. However, they only created 21 sacks from that, fourth-worst in football. They need an outside guy to take advantage of quarterbacks unsettled by pressure from up the gut.
Selection: Edge Rusher Kwity Paye, Michigan. Paye broke out with a big, 6.5 sack junior season in 2019 before an injury limited him to just a pair of sacks in 4 games his senior year. In 2020, Paye was rated as the biggest athletic freak in college football by The Athletic due to his insane short area burst and superhuman closing speed. Hopefully, that burst will allow the Guinean to shine on the edge in Sin City.
Pick: 18
Team: Miami Dolphins
Needs: The Fins already grabbed a target for Tua. Now, they should work on beefing a pass rush that was among the best in the league but could still use work.
Selection: Edge Rusher Azeez Ojulari, Georgia. Ojulari is possibly the most complete edge rusher in this class. The redshirt sophomore is easily the best run defender in the class, has elite measurables (4.63 40, 127 inch broad jump), and amassed 8.5 sacks in 2020. However, his ceiling is limited and his current pass rush repertoire is lacking. Ojulari is a solid choice here, even if he may not be the sexiest pick for a Miami team flush with picks.
Pick: 19
Team: Washington [REDACTED]s
Needs: If Mac Jones isn’t around, Washington should draft an OT yadda yadda let me pitch my new idea for the Football Team’s new name. The Washington [REDACTED]s allows the team to keep the ‘red’ aspect of the name while also allowing for a transition to a sexier red-and-black color scheme (call it Sherando bias) to represent the colors used to restrict government information, a homage to the federal government a few miles away. Hail To The [REDACTED]s!
Selection: Offensive Tackle Christian Darrisaw, Virginia (F*CK) Tech. Just a few short hours up I-81 and over I-66 lies the possible newest member in the lineage of the Hogs. While Darrisaw does not have a hand in the founding of Five Guys Burgers and Fries, he does have a low, powerful way of playing that allows him to bully any lineman he opposes. He can bulldoze in the run game and keep a clean pocket for passes, and his 6-5, 314lb frame is more or less pro ready. Darrisaw could be a plug and play tackle to keep Ryan Fitzpatrick and Taylor Heinecke upright.
Pick: 20
Team: Chicago Bears
Needs: If Mac Jones drops this far, then the Bears should absolutely nab him cause, uh, their quarterbacks are usually about as good as the Jets’. Otherwise, they can help whoever their current QB1 is by nabbing some O-Line help.
Selection: Offensive Tackle Alijah Vera-Tucker, USC. Vera rounds out the top tier of offensive lineman headlined by Sewell Slater, and Darrisaw. Vera-Tucker played left tackle in SoCal, but has the ability to pick up either tackle or guard position in the NFL. This will benefit the Bears cause as usual, their offensive line is a little substandard or on an expiring contract across the board.
Pick: 21
Team: Indianapolis Colts
Needs: Newly-acquired QB Carson Wentz was at his best playing with a dominant pass rush in Philly — a pass rush that created havoc and turnovers, allowing him to play with a lead and not go all hero mode. The Colts pass rush is aggressively average right now. They should remedy that.
Selection: Edge Rusher Jaelan Phillips, Miami. Phillips and Rousseau had tantalizing upside for Miami’s defense, but never really realized that potential, combining for ten sacks in ten games. Phillips had the more productive year, notching eight of those takedowns and an additional 15.5 tackles for loss. He’s also considered the biggest risk in this draft. Phillips’ height and speed make him hard to miss on the field, but he has rarely been on the field. He only played 11 games at UCLA, then medically retired before returning to the game in South Beach. The Colts are good enough at developing talent that this is a good pick for them, regardless of risk.
Pick: 22
Team: Tennessee Titans
Needs: The Titans’ skill position depth chart looks awfully thin after Derrick Henry and A.J. Brown (fun fact: those two are objectively NOT thin). Grabbing another receiver would be helpful for keeping Ryan Tannehill’s efficiency up.
Selection: Wide Receiver Rashod Bateman, Minnesota. Bateman’s sharpest ability is his skill in getting off the line, a crucial factor that often gets overlooked in the receiver’s transition to pro ball. In Tennessee’s play action heavy scheme, he should also be able to use his deep threat speed and polished route running to pick up big chunks of yardage.
Pick: 23
Team: New York Jets (via Seattle)
Needs: The Jets did their job and drafted Zach Wilson. Now, they should do their job again and give him another pass protector to go with last year’s first rounder, Mekhi Becton, or a defensive piece to make Wilson’s life easier.
Selection: Offensive Tackle Teven Jenkins, Oklahoma State. Jenkins’ first major plus is that he plays right tackle naturally, which makes him a great complement to Becton at left tackle. Jenkins is an absolute bulldozer, able to move men with ease, and the Cowboy is famed for finishing blocks with aplomb. With a competent line and a rookie quarterback, the Jets may be, dare I say, okay at the sport of football?
Pick: 24
Team: Pittsburgh Steelers
Needs: Ben Roethlisberger is back, but this team is still comically screwed; draft a replacement for Maurkice Pouncey, I guess.
Selection: Center Landon Dickerson, Alabama. For those of you keeping score, we’re up to our fifth ‘Bama player of the first round, and our third on the offensive side of the ball. Dickerson is a pro-ready center who could slot into Puncey’s old slot on day one, assuming Ben trusts the new giant butt in his face.
Pick: 25
Team: Jacksonville Jaguars (via Los Angeles Rams)
Needs: Best available, and I can’t stress this enough, player.
Selection: Linebacker Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, Notre Dame. I surprised myself by letting Owusu-Koramoah slip this far, but the need for off-ball linebackers around the league is not incredibly pressing. The Ringer has the Notre Dame product as their ninth overall prospect, but I think that’s a bit of a stretch. Owusu-Koramoah profiles very similarly to Isaiah Simmons, who Arizona grabbed in the top-10 last year. They both are athletic specimens who played the tweener/rover position on elite defenses. A year into his career, Simmons going so high in the draft appears to be a mistake. Taking Owusu-Koramoah this low in the first round would be a steal for Jacksonville nonetheless.
Pick: 26
Team: Cleveland Browns
Needs: This is going to sound absolutely bananas to anyone who has paid attention to football in the last 50 years, but the Browns’ defense is solid. There aren’t a lot of holes to attend to. It’s time for them to stack depth.
Selection: Defensive Tackle Christian Barmore, Alabama. The Browns are thin at defensive tackle, which is a small problem for their 4-2-5 defense. Adding the top interior lineman in the draft can help with that. Barmore is strong, tall, and athletic as all get out. He could be a great fit rushing along with Myles Garrett. However, he also is a tad underweight and could get bullied against run heavy teams like Baltimore, and he only has one season of experience as a starter.
Pick: 27
Team: Baltimore Ravens
Needs: The Ravens either need to give Lamar Jackson someone to throw to or replace the edge presence of the departed Matt Judon.
Selection: Edge Rusher Jayson Oweh, Penn State. Oweh fits into roughly the same role as Judon — a speedy standup linebacker capable of consistent disruption. That disruption isn’t a guarantee of results, though. The former Nittany Lion failed to register a sack in seven games in the COVID-shortened season. Baltimore will hope Oweh’s athletic gifts allow for some positive regression to the mean island boost his scak totals.
Pick: 28
Team: New Orleans Saints
Needs: This team’s title window slammed shut when Brees retired. They should be surrounding their passers with talent to gauge if Taysom Hill or Jameis Winston is their quarterback of the future. They could also trade back and try to rebuild through a bunch of mid-round picks for the second time in five years.
Selection: Wide Receiver Elijah Moore, Ole Miss. Moore’s size is a big issue for a lot of scouts. The Mississippi product stands just 5-9, 185 lbs. However, that never really held him back when playing in the big, physical SEC. In 8 games this season, Moore hauled in 86 balls for eight touchdowns and nearly 1,200 yards. He runs routes as well as anyone on this list not named DeVonta, has great hands, and great short-area burst. He could be a great slot target for Lamar Jackson in the coming years.
Pick: 29
Team: Green Bay Packers
Needs: What they should do: everything they can to keep Aaron Rodgers from becoming the permanent host of Jeopardy by drafting him some pass protection. What they will do: draft a quarterback to compete with Rodgers and Jordan Love, forcing Aaron to win another MVP out of spite. Gosh, I love football.
Selection: Offensive Tackle Alex Leatherwood, Alabama. Our seventh and final Crimson Tide selection of the night. Leatherwood projects as a solid starter on the Packers’ blindside into the future, whoever it may be throwing the ball behind him.
Pick: 30
Team: Buffalo Bills
Needs: The only thing standing between Buffalo and a Super Bowl appearance is Patrick Mahomes, so I would suggest Brandon Beane and co. draft a miracle. However, a young center to build and grow with quarterback Josh Allen wouldn’t hurt either.
Selection: Center Creed Humphery, Oklahoma. Absolutely obsessed with how much it makes sense that Oklahoma would have a center named Creed Humphery. You can’t make this up. It would make even more sense CREED HUMPHERY joined the Bills’ (the BILLS) offensive line. Richie Incognito wouldn’t even have to think that hard to bully him. Oh, I guess he’d be alright linking up with Allen too.
Pick: 31
Team: Baltimore Ravens (via Kansas City)
Needs: As we said above, the Ravens need to replace Judon or give Lamar a receiver. Whichever one they didn’t do at 27, they will do at 31.
Selection: Wide Receiver Terrace Marshall Jr., LSU. Marshall was Joe Burrow’s tertiary target during the national championship year in Baton Rouge, but he was the main man in 2020. With Justin Jefferson tearing up the league and Ja’Marr Chase opted out, Marshall stepped into a big hole and filled it decently well. The 6-4 Junior caught 48 passes for 10 touchdowns and 731 yards over 10 games. In Baltimore, he would work well as a big target Lamar Jackson could use outside the numbers. This would stretch the field and allow Baltimore to run the ball more effectively. It’s questionable how much his poor run blocking would fit into John Harbaugh’s system, though.
Pick: 32
Team: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Needs: Give Tom Brady another weapon ‘cause sure, why the hell not.
Selection: Running back Travis Ettienne, Clemson. I think the biggest hole the Bucs have is behind Brady. While a lot of evaluators consider Alabama’s Najee Harris a better back, I think Etienne fits better in Tampa. We know Brady loves a back that can catch passes, and Etinenne is certainly better at that than Harris. Adding an electric runner would open up another dimension on an already elite Tampa attack. On to ring number eight.
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