In 2018, nobody was worse at scoring points and moving the ball than the Arizona Cardinals. They surpassed Brownsian levels of offensive incompetence, scoring 14.1 points per game, even worse than Cleveland’s 14.6 PPG in 2017, when they won *checks phone* 0 games. They were last in nearly every imaginable category, from traditional stats such as yards (3,865, nearly 800 worse than 31st-ranked Buffalo) and first downs (239), to advanced categories like Offensive Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (41% below average). Their highest scoring output of last year was 28 points against their divisional rival, San Francisco. However, QB Josh Rosen and co. were actually outgained 220 yards to 447, and won only because their defense created 5 turnovers. The team sent out the rookie Rosen as a sacrificial lamb behind a porous offensive line, and even if the pocket didn't immediately collapse on him, the only receiver he could count on to create separation and not drop the ball was 35-year-old Larry Fitzgerald.
The Cardinals’ historically bad offense was a result of total organizational failure. Not only could they not assemble any talent, but what talent they did have couldn’t stay on the field, seeing parts of their already thin offensive line miss time. Mike McCoy and Byron Leftwich were at best ineffective in their playcalling duties. They often used challenging QB reads that were too complicated for the young Rosen, and they brutally misused one of the best open-space backs in the game, David Johnson, by running him directly up the middle. Every. Single. Time.
So, in the winter, Arizona hit the reset button. Gone were Steve Wilks and all of the offensive staff, replaced by 36-year-old wunderkind Kliff “I really hope his middle name doesn’t start with ‘K’” Kingsbury. In 5 seasons at the helm of Texas Tech, Kingsbury amassed a losing record of 35-40, but record isn’t why Arizona hired him. Kingsbury is one of football’s foremost proponents of the Air Raid, an offensive system based on getting the ball downfield fast and running as many plays as possible. The team also moved on from Rosen and used the #1 overall pick to lure former Oklahoma QB Kyler Murray away from the MLB. Murray is a season removed from winning the Heisman Trophy, the highest honor in college football, and setting all kinds of passing records under Lincoln Riley. The hope is that the two will mind-meld like Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes, or Sean McVay and Jared Goff, or, hell, even a weirder version of Bill Bellichick and Our Lord And Savior Thomas Edward Patrick Brady Jr. (exalted is he). But that won’t happen in 2019. The Cardinals have the potential for a great offense...just not right now. Here’s how they can become the NFL’s leading offense by the time Kyler Murray gets to his second contract.
The Scheme and the Coach
Kliff Kingsbury selling Arizona on his idea for bringing the Air Raid to NFL (2019)
For Kingsbury, it all starts with the Air Raid. It was born on the high school gridiron in the ‘80s and ‘90s, and made the move to college football through Texas Tech’s Mike Leach, who coached Kingsbury when he was a QB at Tech, and other pioneers. The are various coaches who have tried out certain concepts from the Air Raid, but no one has fully implemented the scheme in pro football. The Air Raid is built around running as many plays as possible on offense, and making as many of those pass plays as possible. Kingsbury has said he wants to run “90-95 plays” this year, which might have been realistic in the NCAA (Once, Kingsbury’s QB Patrick Mahomes completed 52 passes on 88 attempts, and Tech ran 108 total plays), but not in a pro game. Arizona only ran 56 plays per game last season, and Baltimore’s ground-heavy offense paced the field with just over 70 plays per game. Still, it’s not unlikely that the Cards will lead the league in plays per game in the coming years. The core play designs of the up-tempo Air Raid are the 4 Verticals, which sends 4 receivers on Go routes straight down the field, and the Mesh concept, which sends two bunched receivers on crossing routes (think the play in Super Bowl LII where Eagles receivers high fived before the pass) and then two outside receivers run any of a series of hot routes. Most plays are run out of shotgun sets with 4 or 5 receivers, and it often utilizes running backs split out wide and spread out around the line of scrimmage. It’s a system that requires speedy receivers, a versatile back, and a QB capable of making big plays with his arm, legs, and brain.
In all likelihood, Kliff Kingsbury will be the first man to bring the Air Raid fully to the NFL. He’s been adamant about bringing aspects of the high-scoring system like lining up with 4 or 5 receivers and running out of the no huddle. He also has the quarterback with the arm to make all the plays, but his other personnel need time to develop or be replaced. Kingsbury is also expected to throw in another option with the trendy run-pass option (RPO) plays. These are plays, usually run from the shotgun, that give the quarterback a chance to read the defense before deciding to hand the ball off to a back, throw a quick-developing route, or keep it and run. These reads are tough, but are generally adept at countering the defense keying in on either the run or pass. The Air Raid and the other concepts that Kingsbury is bringing from the college ranks have the potential to work, but they need the right talent in the right spots to truly blossom.
The QB
Kyler Murray’s preseason has been...well...
Via FoxSports
Not stellar. In Lincoln Riley’s Air Raid attack in Oklahoma, Murray threw for 4361 yards and 42 TDs to 7 INTs, completed a stellar 69% of his passes (nice), and averaged a record-breaking 11.6 yards per attempt through the air. Additionally, he rushed for 1001 yards with 12 TDs on 140 carries over 14 games his senior year. His ridiculous production earned him the Heisman, but he has yet to flash that ability in the preseason. In his first three (albeit meaningless) games, Murray’s YPA is almost half of the record-breaking total. He also failed to account for a score in any of his 3 games, but that might be as much a product of the rest of the offense as of Murray’s development. Murray’s famous ground game has been totally absent in Kingsbury’s scheme. He totalled 5 attempts on the ground, with very few runs designed to take advantage of his speed and open-field awareness. Arizona not taking advantage of Murray’s electric running would be a tragedy for the casual football fan, but there is reason for said fan to hope. It’s only the preseason, so Kingsbury and co. might be hiding their full playbook until Sunday in Detroit
In his longest preseason outing, last weekend in Minnesota, Murray played almost 2 quarters against an above-average Vikings defense. Kyler missed on several timing throws to the flat, short hopping the ball at least twice each to Christian Kirk and David Johnson and once to TE Maxx Williams. However, he was able to complete passes on designed rollouts, and avoid pressure and find breakdowns in the coverage late in the down. He showed off his arm strength to find Damir Byrd on a 36-yard dime, and also showed how much he needs to develop his touch and timing by leading Kirk out-of-bounds on and endzone fade route.
Murray has a long way to go to develop from college standout to steady NFL presence. He needs to improve the short timing throws that are staples of the NFL offense, and he needs to keep his accuracy consistent on all types of throws. However, we haven’t seen him in a full-tilt game with Kingsbury’s true offense yet. He may not produce at an elite level this year, but if he and Kingsbury are given time to develop in tandem, his rare combination of arm strength, mental ability, and mobility could put him in the top tier of QBs in the coming post-Brady era.
The Supporting Cast
The supporting cast on the 2018 Cardinals was, like the rest of the team, mostly abysmal. The only receiver to break 80 targets was veteran Larry Fitzgerald, who, to put it nicely, is older than dirt but still somehow managed to reinvent himself as a possession receiver in the slot. Second was running back David Johnson, to whom Rosen had to constantly check down to because the offensive line couldn’t stop even the most pathetic of four-man rushes. Arizona’s number 3 receiver Chad Williams was so bad that he registered a catch % of 37%. Thirty...Seven...Percent. That was good for 17 catches on 46 targets. As previously mentioned, Johnson was horribly misused as a runner, with the majority of his runs between the guards, instead of outside the tackles, where he does his best work. Johnson might have been inefficient, but backup/change-of-pace back Chase Edmonds was worse, gaining a measly 3.9 yards per touch, far worse than the average player of his position. I could go on and on in this vein, but the point is simple: the Cards needed a skill position reset.
Thanks to their tank job in 2018, the Cardinals had 11 picks in the 2019 draft, including the #1 overall pick that turned into Kyler Murray. They invested 4 more of those picks on pass catchers, grabbing UMass (Go Minutemen!) speedster Andy Isabella (62nd overall pick), Iowa State monster Hakeem Butler (103rd), Fresno State’s KeeSean Johnson (174th), and UCLA tight end Caleb Wilson (254th, the last pick in the draft). And just like that, Arizona established their receiving corps of the future. Once Fitzgerald retires and journeyman/current #2 Michael Crabtree moves on, Christian Kirk slots in as the #1 guy, the 6-5 Butler can establish himself as a red zone target, Isabella can either play an Edelman role in the slot or stretch the field outside the numbers, and one of the younger tight ends (Ricky Seals-Jones, Maxx Williams, or Wilson) can work as a blocker/vertical threat hybrid. All of these guys are capable of stretching the field in the Air Raid, and they’re young enough (excluding Grandpa Fitzgerald) to run entire drives using 4-5 receivers in the hurry-up. Until those guys develop, Trent Sherfield can be productive in the slot, and Chad Williams literally can’t be worse than last year. The Cardinals used this draft to set up Murray with future targets and selected a variety of prototypes for him to play with.
The 2018 Cards finished 5th from the bottom in sack%, at 9.5%. That means Josh Rosen and Co. were sacked just about every tenth dropback. If you remove mobile quarterbacks like Dak Prescott, Russell Wilson, and Marcus Mariota from the equation, Arizona’s sack rate becomes tops in the NFL. The offensive line needed a makeover really, really badly. It didn’t get one. The average age of their starting 5 will be 29.8, one of the oldest lines in the league, and all but underwhelming tackle D.J Humphries are on steep downslopes from being barely league average at their peaks. Thankfully, Kingsbury’s scheme is usually built around getting the ball out quickly, which should keep Murray from getting knocked flat on his ass too often in the near future.
Thankfully, there’s hope for the future of Murray’s protective unit. There are a few mid-tier free agents, such as Cowboys tackle La’el Collins and Redskins’ guard Brandon Scherff, who both fit Murray’s timeline and are affordable. On top of that, the first 3 rounds of the 2020 draft should be stocked with talent, led by Georgia linemen Solomon Kindley and Andrew Thomas. Both have been instrumental in the success of Georgia’s prolific passing game, despite playing in the defense-heavy SEC. It would be in Arizona’s best interests to nab 2 linemen early in the draft and get either Collins or Scherff to mentor them in the ways of protecting a franchise quarterback.
The Cardinals won’t be good this year. Their offense might show flashes of brilliance, but too many young players--and head coaches--need to learn too much for them to be a consistent and cohesive unit. However, the makings of a future scoring powerhouse are there. Kyler Murray can be a bona fide franchise QB, and Kliff Kingsbury might just be the McVay to his Goff. With a couple offseasons committed to cleaning up the line and developing young skill position players, Arizona could become the new center of the NFL’s offensive revolution.
Update (as this article was published, Murray brought the Cardinals to a comeback tie against Detroit in the season opener. He completed 29 of 54 passes for 308 yards, 2 TDs, and a pick to go with 3 carries for 13 yards on the ground.
Minutemen!
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