Connor Lothrop
Baseball’s offseason has been getting slower and slower by the year. Top-level signings and blockbuster trades had been entirely non-existent, until AJ Pollock signed for the LA Dodgers today. The extended will-they-won’t-they trade scenario with Miami and JT Realmuto has swung decidedly to nada, despite the weak market of catchers in contending teams. Before the Pollock signing, he biggest news of the the new year was Diamondbacks-Yankees trade for a replacement level utility man and the Tampa Bay Rays signing of OF Avisail Garcia. In fact, the most exciting storyline of the offseason has been Heisman Trophy winner and Oakland draft pick Kyler Murray’s decision to declare for the NFL Draft. Whether or not he will report to The Cactus League for spring training with Oakland remains a mystery. However, the MLB’s leading story since the Red Sox World Series victory has been the incredible, slow burn free agencies of OF Bryce Harper and SS/3B Manny Machado. Both have been been very slow about fielding offers and meeting with teams in a way that is unprecedented for such stars, and neither seem to have a particularly strong handle on where they end up. Harper has even gone so far as to tweet about asking certified wizard Tony Romo where he’ll play next year. Both young stars are known to be chasing contracts upwards of $300 million. How deserving are they of contracts of this caliber, though?
Machado and Harper have both reportedly received and then turned down offers. The Chicago White Sox offered a 7 year, $175 million deal to Machado. They have been making subtle plays, like bringing Machado’s relatives into the team fold. He has not received any offers from his most recent team, unlike Harper, who rejected both an extension and contract that were supposedly worth more than the magical $300 million. As of today, both are being courted by “mystery suitors” but remain unsigned.
Harper and Machado both have shown flashes of potential to be transcendent superstars entering their age-27 seasons, but neither showed much of that in 2018. Neither Harper nor Machado cracked the top 20 in WAR (Wins Above Replacement, an advanced metric that tracks how many more wins a player is worth than an average, replacement level player), and both had been seriously questioned about their games.
Harper’s defense was horrendous last season, as he hemorrhaged 23 runs in the outfield, 28 fewer than in 2017. That huge drop-off, and a low batting average-high OPS (on base % + slugging %). Harper amassed 695 plate appearances and played in all but 3 games, but was only worth 1.3 WAR. This is just a few seasons removed from an epic 10.0 WAR season in 2015. In the 3 seasons following this, he has only been worth 7.5 WAR.
Machado’s stats were top-level last year (5.7 WAR and .905 OPS split between the Baltimore Orioles and LA Dodgers) during the regular season. However, he struggled to replicate that success in the postseason, as he went 4 for 22 against the Red Sox in the World Series and ended the decisive game 5 with an embarrassing strike out (YouTube it, it’s pretty ugly). More worryingly, though, questions were brought up about his character and how he plays the game. In Game 4 of last year’s NLCS, he instigated a bench clearing stare-off when he appeared to intentionally cleat Brewers 1B Jesus Aguilar running out a routine ground ball. Earlier in the series, he was forced to defend himself from claims he did not always run out ground balls, something Harper has also had troubles with.
This brings us to a question. How much are these 2 superstars really worth? It’s probably not $300 million. Last year, of the top 50 contributors in position player WAR, 14 were earning less than $1 million annually. 11 were making more than $10 million a season, and a mere 3 were worth more than $20 million. The best player in baseball by this metric, Mookie Betts, was still on a pre-arbitration 900k a year deal, which was absurdly valuable.
It is safe to say that Harper and Machado are looking at an absolute bare-bones, minimum offer of 6 years, $150 million. They certainly will not be earning anything near as low as I projected them in the graph. Both ballplayers are still relatively young, only 26. Most players peak between the ages of 29 and 33 in the modern MLB, so it’s reasonable to think that these guys could bounce back and be elite, all around players for the next 6 or 7 years. However, a sharp decline in or before their mid-thirties would be unsurprising. These are guys that broke into the majors at age 19, and they will have a lot of mileage on their tires. The have both played almost the exact same number of games, with Harper totaling 927, 1 more than Machado. It is reasonable to expect some of their production to drop off harder and earlier than a guy who broke in at 24 or 25.
In an open market, no player is worth $300 million, especially a player with a big drop off in their contract year. But the MLB is not an open market in a vacuum. Last season, among the top 50 WAR-getters (whose salaries and WAR values are pictured in the graph below) , a player of Machado’s numbers would have been worth $6.78 million, and Harper $2.7 million (these numbers were a little deflated by 14 of those 50 making under a million in 2018). It is a guarantee they will receive massive contracts. The MLB free agent market is bloated and competitive, and teams will have to outbid other suitors when the market for these two heats up eventually. And boy, will it heat up as spring training approaches and two generational talents remain unsigned.
Of the two, Machado is more likely to receive the bigger contract. He is a plus defender at third base, and not an objectively terrible shortstop, he’s been a more consistent all-around performer for the last 7 years, and he’s won 3 more playoff series than Harper, who has won precisely 0. Most advanced metrics point his way over the last several seasons, too. The only scenarios that see Harper getting the bigger of the contracts are if he goes somewhere where analytics take a backseat to name recognition, he goes back to the DC, or he goes to an American League team looking for a young DH. His aforementioned fielding woes should encourage teams to be able to let him DH, but be able transition back into playing outfield again if he suddenly recovers his defensive magic.
My final predictions
Manny Machado: He signs an 8 year, $260 million deal with either the White Sox or Dodgers, but it happens the day before pitchers and catchers report. He probably will not report to Spring Training on time.
Bryce Harper: I predict he goes unsigned 2 weeks into Spring Training before he signs a 2 year, $60 million deal with the Nationals. This is a gamble for both sides, as both would profit from a return to form, but could be ruined by further regression. The Nationals could contend for the National League East this year with peak Harper, and he could sign a longer, richer deal in 2021. However, committing that much money to him only for him to post another subpar season or two could see them duke it out with the Mets for third in the East. It would also tarnish his reputation as a true superstar and could see him cursed to “only” mid-length, mid-tier money contracts for the rest of his playing days.
The MLB offseason is nearly two-thirds of the way over, but it’s most interesting story continues as we march on towards the light at the end of the tunnel: Spring training.
Note: A big thanks to my 'editors' Brooke Jones and Heather Walton for reading this and telling me how bad I am at using commas!
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