316 days after the Boston Red Sox won their fourth World Series title this century, Fenway Sports Group fired Sox general manager Dave Dombrowski. To quote Douglas Adams, “This made many people very angry and was widely regarded as a bad move.” Dombrowski is a popular figure in today’s celebrity-executive culture, and he helmed one of America’s most popular franchises. But he had apparently worn out his welcome, and was asked to leave the club after completing his fourth year as President of Baseball Operations.
Dombrowski spent parts of 5 seasons running the Red Sox, and in that time took them from the bottom of the American League East to 3 straight division titles, culminating in a World Series victory against the LA Dodgers last year. Dombrowski acquired a trio of All-Star pitchers, starters Chris Sale and David Price (participants in perhaps the greatest MLB commercial of all time), and closer Craig Kimbrel. Dombrowski also grabbed All-Star J.D Martinez, and critical role players, like first-base platooners Mitch Moreland and Steve Pearce. Last but not least, he oversaw the young core of the Red Sox take a leap from promising to productive. OFs Mookie Betts, Jackie Bradley Jr., and Andrew Benentendi, and SS Xander Bogaerts all became high level contributors to a high level team. During last year’s championship run, those 4 homegrown players combined for 20.7 Wins Above Replacement (WAR), paced by the eventual MVP Betts at 10.9.
This year, Boston brought back every essential piece from last year’s championship except for Kimbrel and setup man/master of martial arts Joe Kelly. However, the Sox were unable to sustain the previous years’ 108 win pace and experienced one hell of a championship hangover. Boston was at .500 as recently as a June 11 loss to Texas (34-34), and have been only 8 games over in the 3+ months since. Boston was officially eliminated from the AL East race last week, and maintain a <0.01 chance to win the Wild Card with 12 games to play. That same group of homegrown players have seen their collective WAR drop 6 wins to 14.5, and the team is on pace to finish 25 wins below the 2018 team.
Most of the blame for this has fallen on Dombrowski’s shoulders. In pursuing the stars that built the 2018 champions, he sacrificed two very important aspects of an organization: cap space and the farm system. The MLB luxury tax, while not a hard salary cap like that of all the other American sports, is more of a discouraging slap on the wrist than outright punishment for gluttonous spending. Boston is currently carrying 6 contracts with a 2019 value of more than $10 million, which takes up nearly a quarter of their available cap space. Four of these are to players older than 29, and the other 2 are arbitration salaries due to Betts and Bogaerts. The Sox total salary is $245 million, via sporttrac, and the repeater tax (this is Boston’s third consecutive year over the tax threshold) takes their total payroll to $254 million. Boston owners are clearly not happy with paying a quarter of a billion dollars for a team entering 85-win purgatory.
Dombrowksi also shook down the farm system like a schoolyard bully trying to take my, I mean, somebody's' lunch money. Before Dombrowski took over in 2015, Boston had the 6th ranked farm system, via Baseball Prospectus. Now, because of a combination of win-now trades, poor drafts, and busts, the Sox now possess the league’s worst farm system.
All of this leaves the new man in charge, whoever it may be, with a lot of work to do. The team is mired in a bad year, with a terrible farm system, and with negative cap space. That means its...
The path for Boston is murky. They could bounce back and compete for a wild card next year, but the AL East has 2 of the top 8 teams in baseball, and both will get star contributors back from injury next year. More likely, they will try to trade stars for prospects and pull a minor tank job. There is plenty of movable salary on this roster; David Price and Chris Sale would both demand serious packages in return. But the prize many teams have their eye on is Mookie.
Mookie Betts is one year off of an MVP season and, posted “only” 7 WAR in a down year this year. He’s the model of a modern megastar. He follows all of the accepted analytical trends, drawing walks (95 BB vs. 99 Ks), getting on base (.391 OBP), and mashing dingers (28, good for 4th on the team). Number 50 also passes the eye test with an above average glove in left and center to complement his blazing speed on the basepaths. He is possibly the 3rd most desirable trade candidate in baseball after Mike Trout and Christian Yelich, and his contract situation makes him more likely to move than either of those two. Betts is eligible for his second year of arbitration, and is eligible for free agency next year. The Red Sox reportedly offered him an extension early in the season, but Betts turned it down and is reportedly interested in exploring the free market after the 2020 season. This is scary for the cash-strapped Sox, who risk losing a top-5 ballplayer for nothing. So some around the league have begun to call for trade talks.
To be clear, there are very few scenarios in which it makes sense for Boston to trade Mookie. After leading the Sox in WAR for 5 consecutive seasons, he’s proven that he’s more important to the club than anyone else within the organization. A season of 8-win Mookie Betts is likely going to be more valuable than any prospect package the Sox recoup, unless it includes a record-breaking haul. Furthermore, some of the teams most willing and able to trade for Betts would be Boston’s direct competitors for the AL crown in years to come, and it would be counterproductive to strengthen their rivals.
I expect Betts to stay with Boston at least through the winter. It is likely, however, that they trade at least J.D Martinez and/or Jackie Bradley while they still have value. This would take a lot of salary off the books while still keeping the team competitive now and could set up for the future if trades managed to garner quality prospects.
hangover is a great way to describe it!
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