Rivalry Week Preview

    It’s Rivalry Week: the final and most important week of the regular season. On Friday and Saturday, teams from all over the country will play their most hated rivals for trivial trophies that represent nothing but pride and bragging rights, but these games may be as important as bowl games to most fan bases. This year, Rivalry Week offers a post-Thanksgiving feast of ranked matchups, chances to break losing streaks and earn redemption, and a handful of games that can decide conference championships, bowl game placements, and College Football Playoff berths. Below, I previewed the most important and fun matchups on the menu for this weekend. 

#24 Virginia Tech (8-3) at Virginia (8-3)

    Virginia Tech has won 15 straight the Commonwealth Cups and 19 of the last 20 meetings. The last time the UVA won, NFL journeyman Matt Schaub was throwing passes as a Cavalier. That streak almost broke last year, though, as QB Bryce Perkins led UVE to a 7 point lead with fewer than two minutes to play, but bad luck sunk UVA in OT. This year is UVA’s best chance to knock of the Hokies since 2007; the teams are roughly equal in skill and exactly equal in record, and both come in on winning streaks. This is also their most impactful matchup in decades, as the winner will earn the right to get shellacked by Clemson in the ACC Championship game. UVA’s Perkins has dropped off a little bit from his 2018 numbers, but is still and excellent dual threat, with 523 rushing yards and 2,638 passing yards. His steady receiving corps, led by Joe Reed and Hasise Dubois, and a run game paced by Wayne Taulaupapa and Millbrook High alum PK Kier round out a steady offense. On D, the Hoos boast a stingy defense that possesses 6 players with at least 3 sacks. On the season, opposing QBs are completing barely half of their passes against them and teams are averaging just 3.5 yards per carry.

VT will come into Scott Stadium on a hell of a streak. They’ve won 6 of their last 7, with their one loss coming against #16 Notre Dame by a single point. The run-heavy Hokies are averaging nearly 45 rushes and 173 yards per game thanks to tailbacks Deshawn McClease and KeShawn King. Complementary QB Ryan Willis has chipped in with steady passing numbers (72-117, 906 yards, 9 TD’s, 5 picks) to round out a competent offense. The Tech defense, coordinated by the retiring Bud Foster, have pitched back-to-back shutouts in the Hokies last 2 matchups against Georgia Tech and Pitt, and they are allowing fewer than 10 PPG in November. Virginia’s return to relevance as a football (and basketball and lacrosse and sailing) school should usher in a new, more competitive era for the rivalry; expect UVA to ring in that era with clutch play from Perkins and the defense before Trevor Lawrence torches them in the ACC Championship.

Prediction: Virginia Tech 21, Virginia 27

#5 Alabama (10-1) at #15 Auburn (8-3)

    The Iron Bowl has been perhaps the most iconic rivalry of college football’s past decade. The last time at least one of the teams wasn’t ranked in the top 5 was 2007, and both teams have been ranked going into the matchup 6 times in 10 years. In last year’s contest, Tua Tagovailoa (a card carrying member of the Giannis Antetokounmpo Club For Athletes with Names Writers Hate) torched the Tigers for 249 total yards and 5 scores through the air. However, Alabama’s quarterbacking duties now fall to Mac Jones after Tua suffered an ugly hip injury 2 weeks ago. Jones has played primarily in garbage time against inferior opponents this year, and his only start came last week in a 66-3 win against Western Carolina. Still, Football Outsiders rates Alabama as the most efficient offense in the country by a significant amount for more reasons than just Tua; Nick Saban’s recent commitment to the spread offense and skill position recruitment of players like back Najee Harris (6.7 yards per touch and 17 scores) and receivers Henry Ruggs, Jerry Jeudy, and Devonta Smith have done wonders for their offensive numbers. On defense, Saban’s unit has slipped all the way to 10th in defensive efficiency, but they still boast several NFL prospects like Trevon Diggs and Anfernee Jennings. The Tide need to win this game. A loss to LSU crippled their hopes of an SEC Championship and sent their hopes of a College Football Playoff spot into severe doubt. A quality win over a ranked rival could let them sneak into the CFP through the back door. 

Meanwhile, Auburn comes into the Iron Bowl as the better defensive team for the first time in recent memory. They’re allowing 16 points a game and have yet to give up more than 24 points in a contest. However, their inability to force turnovers consistently against good teams doesn’t bode well in a game where every possession will count. Auburn has played 5 ranked teams this season: they won games against Oregon and Texas A&M but lost to Florida, LSU, and Georgia. In their 3 losses, they averaged about 16 points a game and true freshman QB Bo Nix struggled. It’s not entirely on Nix, though, because a focus on recruiting defenders has left Auburn light at skill positions and ranked 51st in offensive efficiency. To beat Tua-less Alabama, they need their defense to cause turnovers and for Nix and Co. to take advantage of every available opportunity. I don’t think that will happen, but knowing the Iron Bowl, one stupid play can change the whole game.

Prediction: Alabama 21, Auburn 17

#12 Wisconsin (9-2) at #8 Minnesota (10-1)

    The Badgers and Gophers will fight over one of the strangest rivalry trophies in college football this weekend as they square off for...Paul Bunyan’s axe. I wish I was kidding. Traditionally, the winner takes the axe and uses it to ‘chop down’ a goal post. Like the Commonwealth Cup in the section above, this year’s axe will be especially coveted because the winner will match up with Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship in Indianapolis next weekend. The Gophers have been one of this year’s biggest surprises, riding the countries 7th best offense and an exceptional (and probably unsustainable) 5-1 record in close games to a 10-1 start. Their only loss? An old-fashioned Big 10 punt fest against #17 Iowa, 23-19. Minnesota’s exceptional ground game has been a key part of their success, with backs Rodney Smith and Mohamed Ibrahim combining for 299 touches for 1563 yards and 14 scores. Quarterback Tanner Morgan has been a more than serviceable game manager, averaging a fantastic 11.8 adjusted yards per attempt and coming up with several of the big plays that have made the Gophers so good in close games. On the defensive side, they leave a lot to be desired, especially for a Big 10 club. They’ve posted good turnover and efficiency stats, but their average opponent offense is 112th in the nation (damn the Big 10). 

    The Madison squad is equally reliant on their running game: tailback Johnathan Taylor is possibly the best pure runner in the country. Following in the footsteps of former Badgers Montee Ball and Melvin Gordon, Taylor is averaging 6.5 yards on the ground over 265 carries and is well on pace to surpass 200 yards scrimmage, perhaps within this game. The defense is legit too, allowing 14 points a game (inflated by giving up 38 to Ohio State in Columbus) and rating as Football Outsiders 12th most efficient unit, good for 5th in the conference. Senior LB Chris Orr has racked up 11 sacks and 5 passes defended through 11 games and has made his name as a probable NFL prospect. The same can not be said of QB Jack Coan, who has been efficient but not prolific. Wisconsin’s conservative offensive scheme simply requires him to throw the ball quickly and hand the ball to Taylor. That strategy has won them games against bad teams but lost them against good ones. Expect Taylor to top 100 yards on the ground, but Minnesota to win another one-score game.

Prediction: Minnesota 20, Wisconsin 13

#1 Ohio State (11-0) at #13 Michigan (9-2)

    Ohio State-Michigan is such a fixture in the Midwest that is simply known as The Game. However, it hasn’t been much of a game recently. Ohio State has won 14 of 15 and each of the last 7 games, and that streak will in all likelihood continue. Ohio State is cruising to another Big 10 title and a near certain CFP berth, while Michigan, the preseason favorites to win The Game, have underwhelmed once again under Jim “the Khaki Killer” Harbaugh. Michigan has put together one of their best defense units of the Harbaugh Era, ranking 6th in efficiency and 10th in scoring defense. The defense has left something to be desired in big games, giving up 35 and 28 in losses to Wisconsin and Penn State. In fact the whole team struggled so badly early in the season that they needed OT and some ridiculous luck to take down lowly Army. Transfer QB Shea Patterson was supposed to be elite in Ann Arbor, but has only completed 59% of his passes for 9.0 AY/A, 21 TDs, and 5 picks. As a whole on offense, Michigan is 28th in efficiency, but those numbers are disguised  by blowouts against punching bags like Middle Tennessee, Rutgers, and Michigan State.

    Patterson will need to be much more than pedestrian against the best team in the country. Ohio State rates 2nd in the nation in defensive efficiency, 4th in offensive efficiency, and 1st in overall efficiency. Prefer more conventional stats? Ohio State leads the nation in scoring offense (49.4 PPG) and defense (10.5) and is stacked with NFL prospects. Justin Fields is a transfer QB like Patterson, but he has been one of the best passers in the Big 10, completing 70% of his passes for 11 AY/A. On top of that, he has a 33-1 TD/INT ratio. Fields has been able to spread the ball around well, completing at least 15 passes to 6 players, and back JK Dobbins has been a Heisman candidate, averaging 6.8 yards on 234 touches. On defense, edge rusher Chase Young has established himself as a generational prospect. Young has shown the explosive ability to get to the quarterback (16.5 sacks) and drop off in coverage into the flat and over the middle. Expect Michigan to try to get the ball out of Patterson’s hands early to negate Young, but if they ever are losing and in need of passes downfield, Michigan’s poor pass-blocking line with suffer the Wrath of Chase. I don’t see an upset coming here, even in Ann Arbor; 8 in a row for THE Ohio State.

Prediction: Ohio State 38, Michigan 17