Thomas Edward Patrick Brady Jr. (exalted is he) is the greatest quarterback of all time, the most successful football player ever, and the hardest worker in the game. Since he was selected with the 199th pick of the 2000 NFL Draft, he has played for one team, under one coach, and has never even reached free agency. Bill Belichick has set up Brady in such a way that he has never needed to think about anything but football by extending him team friendly offers every time free agency appears to be a threat (the Patriots really benefit from Tom’s wife being a supermodel who makes hundreds of millions more than him) and keeping him happy and winning.
That will most likely change this year. For the first time in his old man life, Brady will face an offseason roundabout (lookin’ at you, Massachusetts) with dozens of choices. He and the Patriots agreed to an August contract extension that supposedly lasts through 2021, but the language of the contract tells a deeper story Essentially, the 2020 and ‘21 seasons of the contract will be voided at the beginning of the NFL’s league year, and the GOAT will be a 42 year-old unrestricted free agent. The Patriots would not be able to franchise tag Brady due to a contractual clause specifically forbidding it. This gives Tom Brady offseason options for the first time in his career. What will he do with them, and how could it disrupt the League’s steadiest franchise?
- Tom Brady Retires
Tom Brady will begin next season as a 43 year-old man. The average player in the National Football League is 26.6. Brady is the oldest non-kicker in the league by over a year. He has won 6 Super Bowls, and could pick up a seventh with a vintage playoff run. He has nothing left to accomplish in football. His wife is hot and rich. Like, worth $480 million rich. He could convey his football career into a successful second career doing literally whatever the hell he wants. Tom Brady does not need to keep playing football.
It might be time for him to quit while he’s ahead. The GOAT’s performance has dropped off a cliff this year. Up until this season, he was in a graceful decline that somehow included an MVP trophy at age 40. But this year, an emaciated receiving corps and lackluster run game have led him to his lowest Adjusted Yards per Attempt (5.86) level since 2003. Just about every metric beyond raw numbers points toward Brady’s rather sudden regression to a merely average middle aged signal caller. He’s sandwiched between Andy Dalton and Eli Manning (?!?!?!?!) for difference between expected completion percentage and actual completion percentage (-3%) according to NFL Next Gen Stats, sitting at exactly league average in Football Outsiders QB Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average, and 21st in QBR. Last season, he was in the top 5 or 10 of all these categories. Even adjusting for his toothless weaponry on offense, Brady has not looked good since Week 3.
However much he has regressed, though, Brady is unlikely to retire. As previously stated, no one in football works harder (except maybe Jon Gruden’s forehead vein). For years, he stated he wanted to play until he was 45. Recently, he went on air and upped the ante to 47. There might be no better way to sell a $160 diet book than to survive in the most competitive sporting environment in the world 20 years longer than the average man. If the Patriots or someone else can give him a good chance to win another Super Bowl, he will not turn that chance down until he has been dead for at least seven or eight years. He is quite possibly the most competitive man on Earth. The only way I see him retiring this offseason is if a) he suffers a serious injury in the next two months b) he wins a Super Bowl or c) both.
So what would Belichick’s next step be? Being Bill Belichick, I doubt he would take an off-year to find another quarterback, especially with how historically dominant his defense has been in 2019. So, he could either attempt to sign a free agent, draft a quarterback with the intention of him becoming a starter (for the first since...Eric Zeier...in 1995...for the Cleveland Browns...), or a combination. He could sign a safe veteran presence like Teddy Bridgewater, Ryan Tannehill, or Tyrod Taylor to a one year starter/mentor deal while using a first rounder on a project QB like Oregon’s Justin Herbert or Utah State’s Jordan Love. This would enable to the Patriots to transition to a new franchise QB while (hopefully) clinching their record 12th straight division title.
Belichick has a more intriguing option, however. Lamar Jackson has spent his last 16 Sundays proving me and everyone in sports wrong by posting the greatest season ever for a dual threat quarterback, compiling over 4,300 total yards and 43 total TD’s, all while leading the Ravens to a 13-2 record and the AFC’s top seed. Ravens coach John Harbaugh should get plenty of credit for Jackson’s success by playing beautifully to the strengths of his multi-talented star, implementing college style formations, options, and playcalls to open up space. The Patriots could pursue a similar strategy should they so choose this offseason. Oklahoma quarterback Jalen Hurts is coming into the draft off a Heisman caliber season in which he led the Sooners to the College Football Playoff with 3,634 passing yards, 1255 rushing yards, and 50 total touchdowns. New England could use one of their 4 third round draft picks to snag Hurts and build a Jacksonesque offense around a talented athlete with the ability to run or throw the rock. It sounds crazy, but the last time Belichick looked to the college game to boost his offense, Tom Brady was elevated to GOAT status, the Spread came to the NFL, and the Patriots went undefeated until Super Bowl XLII. Drafting Hurts and surrounding him with elite athletes like Navy’s Malcolm Perry or literally any Alabama player (more on them later) is risky, but it could unlock a whole new idea of what an NFL team can do with enough talent.
- Tom Brady signs somewhere other than New England
ESPN’s Adam Schefter, perhaps the most respected newsbreaker in the NFL news machine, has spent most of this fall asserting that Brady resigning with the Patriots is less likely than him either retiring or changing teams. He sold his Massachusetts mansion for new digs in Greenwich, Connecticut, where his kids are all enrolled in private school, and, as we already mentioned, he has the legal means to switch teams should he so choose. The question is, where would he go if he left? And what would Bill Belichick do if Brady left?
The answer to the former question is simple; Brady will go to whichever team can give him the best chance to win another Super Bowl. That would need to be a team which has a hole at quarterback, but is otherwise loaded with weapons on both sides of the ball and waiting for the GOAT to lead them to a playoff berth. There are very few teams that meet this criteria because quarterbacks are so essential to success in the modern NFL. The Bears jump out as a candidate. Mitchell Trubisky and poor special teams (double doink, anyone?) have ruined their title chances each of the past two seasons. Their defense, led by Khalil Mack has been good enough to shut down nearly every team they’ve played. However, they lack the elite weapons to attract Brady, and he could get stuck in a situation very similar to his current one in Foxboro
Another team that might show significant interest in Brady would be the LA Chargers. They are consistently one of the most talented yet unlucky teams in the league. Current QB1 and father of 37 children Philip Rivers is a free agent at the end of the season, and he has struggled mightily in his old age (38). They will most likely move on from him, but they still boast 3 excellent receivers and tailback Austin Ekeler, who plays similarly to Brady-favorite James White, and a defense on the rise. The Chargers will also be joining the Rams in a new $4 billion home in Inglewood next year. Signing Brady might be a splashy enough move to fill an Olympic sized stadium, energize a fan base that can barely fill their current 27,000 seats, and reverse their historically awful luck.
If Brady leaves in free agency, then the Patriots are stuck in the same situation as if he retired, but with one epic exception: The possibility of a Brady-Belichick face off for the first time.
- The Patriots resign Brady…and then trade him on draft night
I would like to make it clear that this is a joke. Mostly. However, it would be the ultimate Belichick move to trade the greatest quarterback ever for a 2020 2nd rounder and a conditional 2021 4th rounder. This move would also be the only way Robert Kraft would ever consider firing Belichick.
- Tom Brady resigns and continues to start for the Patriots until climate change puts Massachusetts underwater
In all seriousness, there probably is not another team where Brady is a better fit than in New England. He, Belichick, and Robert Kraft have enjoyed the greatest working relationship in football history. For 20 years, their formula for success has been simple, yet effective. Kraft provides stability and money for talent. Belichick assembles world-beating rosters and schemes them to success, and when that breaks down, Brady swoops in and carries them to victory. This has delivered a run of success unseen in American sports since the 1960’s Boston Celtics. Why change?
If New England wants to keep Brady, they would need to retool in order to revitalize a dead offense. The Patriots own twelve draft picks, including their own first-rounder and four third rounders. This offers plenty of opportunity for roster renewal and growth. Four Alabama receivers will be taken in the first two rounds of the draft, and Belichick can give the best available one a serious look. Jerry Jeudy, Henry Ruggs III, Devonta Smith, and Jaylen Waddle are all elite, home run hitting pass catchers with the ability to energize Brady’s offense. At least two will be on the board when the Patriots take their pick in the 27-32 overall range. They could then use later picks to focus on building offensive line depth, another mid-round running back, and maybe another late round QB find.
Outside of the offense, this team doesn’t really need much to improve. The defense is one of the best ever, and while it will regress towards the mean some next year, it should remain elite. The special teams will rebound when longtime kicker Stephen Gostkowski returns from a hip injury and the team drafts a return man (like, say, a receiver from Alabama). The core of a 13 win, championship caliber team will be there next year. They just need a quarterback and some gosh darn pass catchers. This is hands down Brady’s best chance at another Super Bowl.
5. Tom Brady resigns and transitions into a backup/mentor role
This would be the best long term move for the franchise, and the hardest to sell to Brady. It would involve a) asking him to take a pay cut b) convincing the most competitive man alive to take a step back and c) drafting a quarterback worthy of his mantle. It could happen. Belichick would need to move up in the draft to select a talented, hard working passer to prosper under Brady’s tutelage. The Pats are not picking high enough to draft a truly elite passer unless Tua Tagovailoa’s (another Alabama guy) hip injury truly scares teams enough for him to fall through six or seven needy teams. Instead, the team can draft a signal caller that is not a day one starter, like Jordan Love, or a dual threat option like Jalen Hurts. This will give Brady a chance to gracefully phase out of the starting role that he has hoarded for two decades and ease in an era of...well...an era where the Patriots might well be mortal.
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