Overthunk 2020 NFL Mock Draft

Ladies and gentlemen, the 2020 NFL Virtual Draftathon is upon us. The draft will take place on what is essentially a modified Zoom call. Commissioner Roger Goodell will stand in the basement of his New York home and announce each pick with fake boos raining down around him. Madden creators might even be animating the interactions of the newly drafted and the soulless, undying Goodell, a truly horrifying thought. 

The NFL is more and more of a passing league every year, and this year the talent reflects that change. Almost all of the top prospects are passers, pass rushers, pass protectors, pass defenders, or pass catchers. This year’s wide receiver class is especially strong, boasting the most talent since the 2014 draft (Odell Beckham Jr., Jarvis Landry, Mike Evans, etc.) and a projected seven first rounders. 

The top of the draft, though, is truly headlined by quarterbacks. Joe Burrow is coming off of the greatest passing season in the 150-year history of college football and a championship with LSU; Alabama’s Tua Tagavailoa has had perhaps the greatest career of any amateur field general. Justin Herbert (Oregon) and Jordan Love (Utah State) are both rifle-armed, tall, and raw. Jalen Hurts, previously of Alabama and Oklahoma, has a chance for a draft-night rise into the first round. Jacob Eason and Jake Fromm are outside shots at going on Night 1. 

I am not a draft expert. I am a high schooler with too much time on his hands. I have no access to exclusive team sources, the medical records of quarterbacks from Hawai’i, or the resources of a media conglomerate like ESPN. However, I have YouTube, various statistical references, and way too much time on my hands. I also have an insane ability to overthink things. So, below you will find my projections for Thursday night’s picks and a quick blurb about each player. Ladies and Gentlemen, I present to you the Overthunk NFL Mock: 2020. Please enjoy. 

Pick: 1

Team: Cincinnati Bengals 

Needs: The Bengals have rarely been exciting since the turn of the millenium, and even less often have they been winners. They need a franchise cornerstone to start their rebuild.

Selection: Quarterback Joe Burrow, LSU. About a month ago, there was controversy about whether Burrow would demand a trade if he was taken by Cincinnati (think Eli Manning in 2004), but that seems far-fetched now. Burrow came out of nowhere to absolutely shatter NCAA records under Joe Brady and Ed Orgeron’s (go tiguhs) spread offense in Baton Rouge. The redshirt senior completed 76.3% of his passes for 5,671 yards, 60 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions, and compiled gorgeous throw after gorgeous throw. He lacks elite arm strength, but makes up for toughness, production, leadership, decision making, running ability, pure swag, the works. The Ohio native is the best bet to revive football in Cincy. 

Pick: 2

Team: The Washington Football Team

Needs: More than anything, this team needs a new owner and a new nickname. However, those being more abstract concepts than are generally available in the talent draft, a game changer of any position ought to do the trick. 

Selection: Edge Rusher Chase Young, THE Ohio State. Young is an absolute game-breaker. In a rare case for someone available this high in the draft, his college numbers actually undersell his talent. He led the Big Ten in tackles-for-loss (21). He also paced the whole country in sacks (16.5), fumbles forced (7), and offensive-linemen embarrassed (all of them). Yet, he recorded fewer sacks than his audacious knockdown totals would normally yield, and his tape consists of the man pantsing double and triple teams. He might be the best player in this draft, but he’ll certainly fall to #2. 

Pick: 3

Team: Detroit Lions

Needs: The Midwest subsidiary of Patriot Way Inc. could use an infusion of talent on either side of the trenches, or could pursue a corner that would enter an already good secondary and make it lockdown.

Selection: Cornerback Jeff Okudah, THE Ohio State. Burrow originally went to OSU before transferring to the bayou, so it is very possible that the top 3 picks in this draft could hail from THE...Ohio State. He has the potential to be the model of a modern starting cornerback, with the size to press bigger receivers at the line, the speed to hang with burners, and the explosiveness to make big plays, and ooooo his footwork. He allowed an NCAA-best 4.9 yards for target in his final season in Columbus, and he may be leading the NFL in similar measures soon enough.

Pick: 4

Team: New York (Football) Giants

Needs: A new General Manager better fans a better QB  oh screw it just plug some holes on defense. 

Selection: Linebacker Isaiah Simmons, Clemson. Thankfully, Simmons can plug about two-thirds of their holes. The redshirt junior spent significant time playing as a safety, slot corner, edge rusher, and traditional linebacker...and he dominated everywhere. His freakish combine of size and athleticism allow him to absolute havoc and rack up gaudy numbers (104 tackles, 16.5 TFL, 8 sacks, 3 picks, 2 FF) in his final 15 games. The Giants’ lack of talent will allow him to change roles from week to week, maximizing his value and making him an All-Pro candidate from Day One.

Pick: 5

Team: Miami Dolphins

Needs: Someone that can a) throw the football and b) is not 50 years old and Amish.

Selection: Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, Alabama. The biggest question mark in the draft is tattooed directly on Tua’s hip. His storied college career, which included a walk-off national championship win and the all-time NCAA records for yards-per-attempt, adjusted yards-per-attempt, and passer rating, was ended when that hip was dislocated in a freak accident against Mississippi State. Germageddon has made his draft position especially hard to evaluate because teams have not had a chance for their doctors to look at him in person. He could go as high as second overall or as low as the third round. I would, however, be wildly surprised if a player this talented fell beyond LA at number six. 

Pick: 6

Team: Los Angeles Chargers

Needs: I mean Tyrod Taylor could technically start for a real NFL team but...c’mon. LA is going to take the best available quarterback. 

Selection: Quarterback, Justin Herbert, Oregon. Herbert played in 3 different offenses in 4 years in Eugene, his hometown, and he produced in every scenario. His senior year, he led the Ducks to a Rose Bowl victory and passed for 3,471 yards, completing 66.8% of his throws, and recording a TD-INT ratio of 32-6. He looks like a scout’s dream QB, too: 6-6, prom king looks, and an absolute bazooka on his right side. However, good looks don’t always translate to NFL-level decision making as some scouts seem to think. 

Pick: 7

Team: Carolina Panthers

Needs: This offseason left the Panthers bare in many ways, but new coach Matt Rhule looooves him a rebuild. Expect them to go for a defensive centerpiece who can fix their broken run defense.

Selection: Defensive lineman Derrick Brown, Auburn. Brown is not the next Aaron Donald; he will not pick up 20 sacks in a season. Carolina doesn’t need the next Aaron Donald, either. They pressured quarterbacks at a high rate, and were second in the league in sacks last year. While Brown has the ability to collapse the pocket and get to the quarterback, his real specialty is stopping the run. He’s 6-5 326 lbs, is strong, and tackles well. The Auburn defense he anchored allowed just 3.5 yards per carry in 2019. Brown has the potential to be an excellent run-disruptor in the NFL. 

Pick: 8

Team: Arizona Cardinals

Needs: Reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year Kyler Murray is electric, but he won’t stay that way if he gets sacked 48(!!!) times every year. Get the man some protection, or maybe a receiver.

Selection: Tackle Jedrick Wills, Alabama. I went back and forth on who the best tackle in this class is quite a bit. Tristan Wirfs and Mekhi Becton are absolute freaks and routinely can pancake fools, and Andrew Thomas kept Jake Fromm’s jersey clean in the SEC. However, I would personally evaluate Wills as the most-NFL ready lineman available. His technique is unflappable, and his film study is evident in how he deals with opposing edge rushers. He didn’t put up incredible combine numbers, but the tape doesn’t lie, and he will do a great job keeping Kyler Murray clean. 

Pick: 9

Team: Jacksonville Jaguars

Needs: Wow, this team collapsed fast. Two years ago, they held a ten point lead on Tom Brady in the AFC Championship game. Now, that whole team is out the door. They need a key player to build around. 

Selection: Tackle Tristan Wirfs, Iowa. I almost had Jacksonville selecting a QB here, but I think it’s more likely that they’ll roll with Gardner Minshew II (The Most Interesting Man in the World). That leaves them with an elite offensive lineman, something the franchise has lacked its entire history. At 6-5, 320 lbs, he ran a 4.85 second 40-yard dash and recorded an explosive 36.5 inch vertical. His technique was never flawless in college, and he was vulnerable to powerful inside moves, but the right coach could mold him into a top-five lineman. 

Pick: 10

Team: Cleveland Browns

Needs: Baker Mayfield can be a franchise quarterback...but he got sacked on 7% of his dropbacks in 2019. That’s not all the offensive line’s fault, but it could surely be improved. 

Selection: Tackle Andrew Thomas, Georgia. Thomas has anchored the line on a stupendous Bulldog offense in all three of his years in Athens, and he would be the first pick in most tackle classes. He grades out as an excellent run blocker and above average in pass protection, which makes him a good fit for new Browns coach Kevin Stefanski’s play-action-heavy system. He can play either tackle. He’s long and agile and should do well against speed rushers because of it, but may suffer against stunts and bull-rushes. If he learns to counter those, he could start to resemble another Browns lineman.

Pick: 11

Team: New York Jets

Needs: A receiver that can get open before Sam Darnold starts seeing ghosts. 

Selection: Wide Receiver CeeDee Lamb, Oklahoma. Go watch Lamb’s highlight reel. Seriously, do it. I’ll wait...ok great to have you back. Wow, right? His elusiveness is just unbelievable, his jukes are straight out of an old NCAA game. He catches just about everything thrown at him. This is probably the deepest pass catching class in history, and Lamb is the best of the bunch. Only a franchise with a long and storied history of malpractice could screw this up...

Pick: 12

Team: Las Vegas Raiders

Needs: Vegas could use a big play machine to fill their new home stadium.

Selection: Wide Receiver Jerry Jeudy, Alabama. Some scouts have expressed concern that Jeudy’s small frame (6-1, 193) won’t allow him to break off the line of scrimmage against bigger corners. I disagree. Jeudy has an incredible release off the line, and his route running is more precise than that of most current pros. He can start in the slot or split outside, and he can shake or bake with the best of them. The one concern is his propensity for drops and, well...Derek Carr is not the ideal QB for any receiver. 

Pick: 13

Team: San Francisco 49ers (via trade with Indianapolis)

Needs: The Niners were about 5 minutes from a sixth Super Bowl, but then Patrick Mahomes happened. Now, aging, trades, and free agency have left them significantly weaker at receiver, corner, and defensive line. 

Selection: Wide Receiver Henry Ruggs III, Alabama. Ruggs is the most hit-or-miss of the top few receivers. His speed (4.27 40 and the Alabama state record for the 100m dash) is astounding, and his elusiveness is not far behind that of Lamb. However, he was never able to get open enough to command lots of volume in the Alabama offense (just 40 catches last year), which means he might be a reach at 13th overall. Kyle Shanahan is always on the lookout for Swiss Army weapons, though, and his play-action offense could utilize Ruggs well. 

Pick: 14

Team: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Needs: Keep Thomas Edward Patrick Brady Jr. (exalted is he) upright and healthy at all costs.

Selection: Tackle Mekhi Becton, Louisville. Becton is the rawest lineman among the four Big Bois, but his athleticism gives him freak potential. At the combine, the 6-7, 364 pound Hulk ran a 5.1 second 40, and absolutely ridiculous time for a player 50 pounds lighter. However, he might not fit the Bucs win-now timeline and they already have two competent tackles. He may go to Tompa Bay (cringe), or GM Jason Licht might trade later into the round for more picks. 

Pick: 15

Team: Denver Broncos

Needs: The Broncos could use a secondary receiver to go with breakout star Courtland Sutton or a corner to replace Chris Harris Jr. However, if there’s a quarterback taller than 6-6 available with this pick, John Elway will pounce (I hope I’m wrong).

Selection: Wide Receiver Justin Jefferson, LSU. Many scouts are concerned that Jefferson's numbers (111 catches, 1540 yards, and 18 scores) are a product of the high flying, Joe Burrow powered Tiger offense. However, I think it’s more likely that Burrow’s numbers were inflated by the talent of his receivers, Jefferson especially. The junior wideout rates as the third-best playmaker in the draft by Football Outsiders and showed the ability to get open against SEC corners. He should stick in Denver.

Pick: 16

Team: Atlanta Falcons

Needs: Atlanta dropped disappointing new unis last week, and I expect them to pick up a less disappointing linebacker or pass rusher next week. 

Selection: Linebacker Patrick Queen, LSU. Queen is a tad undersized to be an NFL defender (6-0, 229), but he makes up for it by being in the right place, or, when that fails, using his ridiculous explosiveness (35 inch vertical, 4.5 40) to get to the ball. He wasn’t a turnover machine in Baton Rouge, but takeaways are a wildly inconsistent and unpredictable stat. He should slot in as the third or fourth linebacker in the Atlanta rotation straight out of camp.

Pick: 17

Team: Dallas Cowboys

Needs: Dallas, more than anything, needs a real GM that has no connection to the Jones family. They could also use depth just about everywhere, especially at corner and pass catcher. 

Selection: Cornerback CJ Henderson, Florida. Henderson had a tough final season in Gainesville, going pickless (please take a second to insert that into that Ghostbusters scene), but still providing quality off ball coverage for a stingy Gator pass defense that allowed 200 yards and a touchdown per game. He has elite speed and some ball skills, but he will need much more physicality to fill the void left by Byron Jones. 

Pick: 18

Team: Miami Dolphins (via trade with Pittsburgh)

Needs: Basically anything but quarterback. 

Selection: Edge Rusher K’Lavon Chaisson, LSU. Chiasson is the consensus number two pass rusher here, after Chase Young at the top. There’s a big reason for that gap, too. Young is as sure of a thing as sure things come, but Chaisson is still very raw. He showed explosiveness and bend around the edge in Baton Rouge, but only managed 6.5 sacks on an uninspiring Tiger defense. He certainly has bust potential, especially if Miami continues to develop players poorly. 

Pick: 19

Team: Las Vegas Raiders (via trade with Chicago)

Needs: Took a receiver earlier? Cool, get a cornerback. He’ll feast on Derek Carr in practice, which should be great for his development. 

Selection: Cornerback, Jeff Gladney, TCU. Gladney only managed one interception in his final season at Texas Christian (sidenote: Horned Frog is at best a poor mascot for a religious institution), but he broke up 14 passes and played excellent coverage in the pass-happy Big 12/ He has excellent cover skills, blazing speed, and plenty of other tools; he just might be too small (5-10, 190) to match up with top receivers in the pros.

Pick: 20

Team: Jacksonville Jaguars (via trade with LA Rams)

Needs: A defensive tackle to fill the void left by the departures of Calais Campbell and eventually Yannick Ngakoue. 

Selection: Defensive Tackle Javon Kinlaw, South Carolina. Kinlaw’s main selling point is versatility. He can line up anywhere along the line of scrimmage and be disruptive. The Jaguars are in the process of blowing up their whole roster, and a guy who can play multiple positions along the line could go well with Josh Allen in a brand new Sacksonville. 

Pick: 21

Team: Philadelphia Eagles

Needs: Philly had one of the worst receiving corps in the league, and injuries further decimated their production. They should profit off of this historically deep class. 

Selection: Wide Receiver Tee Higgins, Clemson. Like Ruggs, it may be a stretch for Higgins to go this high, and both of them fail to create separation. However, Higgins trades Ruggs’ speed for jumpball skills. He’s 6-4 and made spectacular catch after spectacular catch against ACC opponents, and he may be able to pull off the same feats in the NFC East, but his inability to create space for passes could be damning. 

Pick: 22

Team: Minnesota Vikings (via trade with Buffalo)

Needs: In order to corral this pick, the Vikings traded star receiver Stefon Diggs, who absorbed 20% of their team’s targets. They should find a replacement for him here. 

Selection: Wide Receiver Jalen Reagor, TCU. In a wideout class filled with freaks, Reagor might be the freakiest. The TCU speedster squats 620 pounds, ran an unofficial 4.22 at his pro day (tied for the fastest in combine history) and has received comparisons to Saquon Barkley and Percy Harvin. Hopefully, though, he will be able to out-produce that duo long term. Being unleashed in yet another playfake heavy offense, this time featuring Kirk Cousins as a QB, could fulfill that dream.

Pick: 23

Team: New England Patriots

Needs: What we as the media perceive the Patriots needing what they actually need are two different things. A normal coach would take a quarterback here; Tom Brady did just leave after all. Bill Belichick has twelve picks in this draft, but just one in the first two rounds. I expect him to sell this pick down the river for someone who wants to snap up Jordan Love in exchange for more picks *insert Golem meme here*.

Selection: Quarterback Jordan Love, Utah State. Love has the widest range of outcomes for any prospect here because he had such a wide range of outcomes in college. In 2018, he completed 64% of his passes, threw for 8.1 yards per attempt, and paired 32 touchdowns with 6 picks. Then, he started neglecting linebackers in underneath coverage and nosedived in every category, tossing 17 interceptions against 20 scores. His decision making is suspect at best, but the talent is there. His floor is Mitchell Trubisky and his ceiling is Ben Roethlisberger. Ask yourself; would Belichick take that gamble?

Pick: 24

Team: New Orleans Saints

Needs: The Saints are in win-now mode as long as Drew Brees’s right arm is still attached to his body, and their linebacking corps was weak a year ago. Finding a solid off-ball ‘backer might put this team over the top.

Selection: Linebacker Kenneth Murray, Oklahoma. To his credit, Murray improved his tackling a lot after missing 20(!!!) tackles his sophomore year. He has 4.5 speed and good measurables, blitzes well, and can cover...sometimes. He was torn apart by Joe Burrow in a first half where the presumptive top pick threw seven (7) touchdowns. His coverage will have to be more consistent against NFL passing offenses. 

Pick: 25

Team: Minnesota Vikings

Needs: A corner to bolster their disappointing secondary, which was further hurt by the loss of Trae Waynes.

Selection: Cornerback Jaylon Johnson, Utah. Johnson projects as a ballhawk in the pros, with great speed and good ball skills; Minnesota needs all of those things after getting rid of most of their secondary. Johnson could step in and start on this playoff team right away. However, he’s not an enthusiastic tackler and might be a penalty risk early in his career. 

Pick: 26

Team: Miami Dolphins (via Houston Texans)

Needs: Miami’s third pick of the round should be used on a playmaker that can ease some of the load on Tua. Their anemic offense only gained 3.3 yards per carry a season ago, so that might be the place to start..

Selection: Running back Johnathan Taylor, Wisconsin. The first round running back--always a dangerous proposition for a position with less value every year. However, Taylor is a pretty good bet to succeed with the right surroundings. FO’s BACKcast rates him as the top back in the class by a mile. He ran a 4.39 40 at the combine while weighing in at 5-10, 226. In NFL terms, that’s essentially a bulldozer moving at the speed of a Camaro. The only questions are how he will fare in the passing game and whether Miami’s piecemeal O-line could keep him from disintegrating before the team can get competitive.

Pick: 27

Team: Seattle Seahawks

Needs: A serviceable edge rusher has the potential to elevate Seattle to the next level. Their defense was awful, and they were thirty-first in the league in sacks. 

Selection: Edge Rusher A.J Epenesa, Iowa. I am not particularly high on the Iowa product. He did manage to produce incredible sack numbers in his final two seasons (16.5 and 14). However, his measurables concern me. He ran a slow 5.04 forty at just 275 pounds, and his 3-cone is way below average. He could be a good fit across from Jadeveon Clowney, but I’m not too confident. 

Pick: 28

Team: Baltimore Ravens

Needs: Baltimore was an absolute juggernaut in 2019, but they just happened to run into another juggernaut; one with more momentum and named Derrick Henry. They would improve with another change-of-pace back to complement Mark Ingram’s power game. 

Selection: Running Back J.K. Dobbins, THE Ohio State. Dobbins is a much better fit for the modern game than Taylor. He carried the ball 301(!!) times in his senior season and added another 23 catches. His pass catching ability gives him the potential to play on any down in the NFL. His 5-9, 226lb frame has been described as ‘a muscular-hamster type’ and will be good in the open field, but it’s uncertain how well his body will hold up long term and how well he will be able to pick up blitzes. He would be a great fit as Mark Ingram’s backup next to Lamar Jackson. 

Pick: 29

Team: Tennessee Titans

Needs: A boost to their interior defensive line would go a long way towards improving upon their 2019 playoff success. 

Selection: Defensive Tackle Neville Gallimore, Oklahoma. Gallimore’s most common NFL comp is Bengals’ star Geno Atkins, and I see the resemblance. He’s not an outstanding run stopper, but he’s powerful, athletic, and has a good series of interior moves. He could create havoc in NFL pockets, but it might not show up in his numbers. 

Pick: 30

Team: Green Bay Packers

Needs: Green Bay has had possibly the best-named receivers in the league (Geronimo Allison, Equanimeous St. Brown, Marquez Valdez-Scantling), but they could use a true number two guy for Aaron Rodgers to throw to.

Selection: Wide Receiver Denzel Mims, Baylor. Mims was one of the biggest risers at this year’s combine, posting the third best 40 time (4.38) and the best 3-cone (6.66) among all receivers. Pair that with his height and you have a prototype on your hands. He has an incredible catch radius and FO grades him as the fifth-best playmaker in his class. However, his slight frame, primitive route running, and clanky hands make him a potential bust. 

Pick: 31

Team: San Francisco 49ers

Needs: The Niners defense paced the league in yards per play a year ago (4.7), and now would be a good time to pick up a DB who could learn from their established secondary.

Selection: Safety Xavier McKinney, Alabama. McKinney was a playmaking force last year, forcing 7 turnovers in 14 games. He also showed sure hands as a tackler, notching 95 stops. His combine 40 time (4.63) is unremarkable for a DB, but he should still fit in down by the Bay. 

Pick: 32

Team: Kansas City Chiefs

Needs: The Super Bowl champs are deep and didn’t lose much this offseason. They could do a lot to strengthen their ridiculous offense by nabbing a back. Selection: Running Back D’Andre Swift, Georgia. First, I would like to acknowledge that D’Andre Swift is an epic name for a running back. Second, he would be an incredible fit in Andy Reid’s championship caliber offense. At Georgia, he split carries with both studs (Nick Chubb) and scrubs (Brian Herrien), and many scouts were worried about his ability to carry the ball consistently. Reid doesn’t ask that of his backs; they often run through lightly defended lines, split wide, or take checkdowns from Patrick Mahomes. Swift’s combo of hands, speed, and versatility would be a real weapon in KC.