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| via sportingnews.com |
On March 17, 1776, the US Continental Army under Commander-in-Chief Washington forced British soldiers under General Howe to evacuate Boston. In the early 1900s, the combination of an anti-Irish population in Boston, an Irish mayor, and some political finagling led to March 17 becoming a Suffolk County holiday known as Evacuation Day. Exactly 244 years later, Thomas Edward Patrick Brady Jr. (exalted is he) may well have given Bostonians another reason to celebrate E-Day.
Around 10am on March 17, Brady tweeted a heartfelt breakup note to the entire New England region. He explained that after a 20 year union, he would be moving onto warmer, greener, and as of yet, unidentified pastures. Hours later, it was revealed the GOAT would be evacuating to graze in Tampa Bay (instead of Nova Scotia, a la Howe). His sudden yet drawn out departure leaves us with three questions: What does this mean for the Patriots, what does this mean for Tommy, and what does it mean for Boston?
First, it means Tom Brady will wear roughly the fifth-ugliest football uniform ever (even if they get replaced, Tampa has a history of ugly threads), his famous twelve in the exact same font as my alarm clock, dripping in creamsicle orange and whatever the hell that red is called. It also means Brady has a chance to bring together all the factors that have made him successful throughout his career in one spot. Two of Brady’s most prolific passing years came in 2007 and 2011 (two Super Bowl losses), and Tampa has the personnel to run it back to those golden days.
In ‘07, Tom set a single-season record with fifty TD tosses by targeting a generational talent in Randy Moss and Wes Welker, the NFL's first full-time slot receiver. Tampa has a similar one-two punch with Mike Evans (a tall freak with incredible hands and playmaking ability outside the numbers like Moss) and breakout star Chris Godwin (a high volume slot receiver who’s even more athletic than Welker). Both receivers were highly productive in an offense steered by Jameis Winston, whose throw first, think later attitude is the absolute antithesis of Brady’s calm brilliance.
In 2011, Brady again led a hyper efficient offense focused instead around a young tight end duo. In their rookie year, now-WWE star Rob Gronkowski smashed the single season tight end TD record by hauling in seventeen scores, and the late Aaron Hernandez tacked on seven more while combining with Gronk for more than 2,100 receiving yards. Tampa can offer a tight end pairing of a lesser caliber than the ‘11 Pats, but still better than what New England can currently offer. OJ Howard’s rare combination of size and speed has made him a breakout candidate for as long as I have been alive (it at least feels like it), and his backup, Cameron Brate, is a reliable pair of hands. The hope is that Brady can elevate all of these Tampa pass catchers and rebound from a poor year with a barren skill position group.
The GOAT would also have high level support behind him from the coaching staff. Head coach Bruce Arians was behind Carson Palmer’s late career renaissance in Arizona (between his age 34-38 season, he produced a rating of 91.7) and the early development of Andrew Luck. His usual no risk-it, no biscuit strategy (Winston’s throws averaged 10.0 air yards last year, tops in the league) maybe doesn’t fit with the physical limitations of a forty three year-old quarterback, but Arians and offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich are both quarterback-savvy enough to add quicker, more Brady-friendly passses to their playbook. I doubt Tampa’s coaching staff will make up for the loss of the GOAT’s familiar coach combo of Bill Belichick and Josh McDaniels. However, his new weapons, a competent Tampa staff, and an up-and-coming defense have positioned Brady to surpass Thanos and win a seventh ring.
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| via ftw.usatoday.com |
On the other hand, how will the offensively-barren wasteland from whence Brady hath fled fare? Spoiler alert: Bill Belichick will find a way to win ten games (again) and hope everyone else in the AFC East self sabotages enough for him to win the division (again). New England managed to lock up the McCourty twins and special teamer Matthew Slater on new deals and star lineman Joe Thuney on the franchise tag. However, they have lost key contributors at nearly every position, including Brady, ‘backers Jamie Collins, Elandon Roberts and Kyle Van Noy, backup center Ted Karras, and defensive tackle Danny Shelton.
This seems like a lot of turnover, especially on defense, but this has never been a problem for Belichick. The secondary from last year’s smothering defense remains intact, rounded out by reigning DPOY Stephon Gilmore and undrafted gem J.C. Jackson. Belichick signed sixth year vet Beau Allen to plug Shelton’s hole along the line, and I’m positive more unheralded signing will come this week. Belichick will also have TWELVE draft picks to work with. Defensive performance is wildly inconsistent from year to year (just ask Chicago and Jacksonville), but nothing about this unit screams major regression. They will be a top-ten unit, barring a massive injury crisis.
The offense, however, could be the worst scoring team to ever trot out of the home tunnel at Gillette Stadium. No Belichick led team has ranked outside the top-ten in points since 2000. The 2019 team finished outside the top-five for the first time in the ‘10s. For the first time since before 1992, New England is without an elite quarterback (Hello, Drew Bledsoe!). There is no lack of options, though.
Andy Dalton and Cam Newton are both available on the trade market. Newton certainly has more upside than the Red Rifle, having won an MVP and narrowly lost a Super Bowl in seven years with Carolina. I would be especially intrigued to see how Belichick and McDaniels would run an offense with a cannon-armed bulldozer under center. There is no guarantee we get that version of Newton, though; he has struggled through injuries to his foot and shoulder over the past two years, and missed a total of sixteen contests over that span. Dalton, on the other hand, would not require a playbook change and offers a significantly lower ceiling. New England would most likely be able to buy him off of Cincinnati for no more than a late round pick, or they could gamble on him getting cut. Newton, recently displaced by Matt Rhule’s new regime and Teddy Bridgewater, would also come cheap. Other quarterbacks like Jameis Winston, Brian Hoyer and Tyrod Taylor are still on the market, but they are all flawed and one-year stopgaps at best.
The Pats also possess the aforementioned twelve draft picks, headlined by the twenty fourth overall selection. Most analysts project that they could use this pick on a mid-tier passing prospect like Washington’s Jacob Eason or Utah State’s Jordan Love, but that just feels...un-Belichickian. Almost every Brady backup has been a late round pick (some, like Matt Cassel, were straight up undrafted) that was later sold for a profit and struggled outside of Foxboro. For New England to stray from their own beaten path would be a shock here; remember, even Tom Brady was a sixth rounder. Look for them to nab someone like Jalen Hurts (Oklahoma) or Cole McDonald (Hawai’i) in the later rounds and focus on skill position help early.
The final option for a succession plan would be to make no personnel moves and roll with 2020 fourth-rounder Jarrett Stidham. The Stidmark (hoping that nickname sticks) threw a whopping four passes last year, including a garbage time pick-six against the Jets so ugly that it brought Brady BACK off the bench. In two seasons at Auburn, he started 27 games, threw 26 touchdowns against 11 interceptions, completed 64% of his passes, and accumulated over 6,000 total yards; good numbers for an SEC quarterback, but nothing outrageous. The only truly interesting thing about his college numbers is that they closely resemble Brady’s at Michigan.
Stidham, or whoever the Patriots find to throw the rock, is not going to replace Tom Brady’s production in New England--I don’t think anyone can replace Tom Brady’s production in New England. He just needs to find a way to keep his team in games. Belichick will find warm bodies to catch footballs (for the love of God please pick up an Alabama receiver) and McDaniels will construct a scheme to maximize everyone’s talent. Sony Michel will bounce back from a brutal year carrying the ball and produce. The defense will win them close games. The floor is high because it's New England. But the quarterback play will decide their ceiling.
Now the final question: What does this mean for the city of Boston? For nearly two decades, Boston has been the center of the sports universe. A sixteen year title drought for the city ended in 2002 with their first Super Bowl, and the team has picked up eleven more championships in the years since. However, ten of those twelve have come from the Patriots and Red Sox. Both of those teams are now without their established headliners, as both Mookie Betts and Brady left in a thirty-six day span. They now enter simultaneous ‘retooling’ periods that could have been avoided with more foresight.
I wrote in September about how dumb it would be for Boston to get rid of Mookie (and it’s not just because I have two #50 jerseys). And yet, they traded him to the Dodgers in a salary dump, something Sox fans are rightfully angry about. John Henry’s ownership has always had deep pockets, and ticket prices will soar even without a star attraction. Bostonians famously hold long grudges (ask about every Yankee who’s ever slighted them), live in America’s fourth most expensive city, and have been spoiled by sporting success. The longest Boston championship drought of my life is 2008-2011, but that might be topped by 2022 in a city now lacking a signature star.
Now, Bostonians will enter a new decade with fewer stars than ever. I doubt that will matter in the short term, though. As long as the Patriots and the Red Sox stay relevant and continue to find new contributors, all will be right with the Hub. However, if either team turns into a consistent loser, Bostonians who never knew of capital-C Curses or, God help us, Steve Grogan, may start to prioritize the Celtics or Bruins (or their MLS team, the Revolution?).
At the very least, both the Celtics and Bruins teams were championship contenders before the COVID-19 crisis began. FiveThirtyEight gives the Celts 6% odds to lift the Larry O’Brien, sixth best in the league, and the Bruins are coming off of a Stanley Cup Finals appearance and were the best team in hockey before the shutdown. Both teams are young and built for the future and have a plethora of rising stars. It is possible that if either squad can build a dynasty, they might well rise to the top of the cold, dead hearts of Boston natives.
However, those cold, dead hearts should still hold a soft spot for the GOAT and his coach. Together they brought them six (6) Super Bowls, and made the previously joyless Patriots a Sunday night stalwart. They breathed life into a city that lives and dies with their teams more than any other. Many fans were openly emotional after Brady’s tweet, calling into Boston radio stations and expressing sadness, confusion, and some unconditional rage aimed directly at Belichick for letting this happen. Michelle from Rockland even said her allegiance would follow Brady wherever he went, not the Pats. Others were openly critical of Brady for putting them in this situation. Either way, New Englanders shouldn’t stay mad at anyone for long. After all, Tom and Bill gave everyone the time of their life.
Update: Sunday afternoon, the Patriots signed QB Brian Hoyer to a 1 year, $1.05 million deal. Previously played for New England in 2009-’11 and 2017-’18.
Thanks as always to the lovely Brooke Jones for editing this crap. Everyone stay safe in the coming months. -Connor
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